EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Akbank: Q325 Results: Strong with margin expansion to continue
Oct-24 09:36
Akbank: Q3 2025 Results: Strong with margin expansion set to continue
(AKBNK; Ba3/NR/BB-)
- Credit positive. Strong set results from Akbank, benefiting from lower deposit costs and margin expansion which looks set to continue into Q425 and 2026 as the Türkiye policy rate comes lower.
- Net interest income (incl swap) showing strong growth +48% q/q and NIM expanding 73bp q/q to 268bp, driven mainly lower deposit costs. F&C was also strong +29% q/q. Net income came in at TRY14.1bn beating bberg estimates of TRY13.32bn.
- Asset quality was stable q/q with NPL’s of 3.5% and capitalisation remained sound CET1 14.2 and CAR 19.3%.
- Management was upbeat during the conf call, stating NIM into the fourth quarter above that of the third quarter, with gradual improvements into Q425 and 2026 as the policy rate comes lower. Management expects to beat loan rate growth guidance for the FY but ROE guidance of >25% looks challenging given 20% for the 9m25, but management expect it to end up between 20-25% for the y/e.
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GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: 2.50% Nov-32 Bund
Sep-24 09:31
| 2.50% Nov-32 Bund | Previous | |
| ISIN | DE000BU27014 | |
| Total sold | E4bln | E4bln |
| Allotted | E3.045bln | E2.675bln |
| Avg yield | 2.52% | 2.46% |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.13x | 0.79x |
| Bid-to-cover | 1.48x | 1.19x |
| Avg Price | 99.86 | 100.26 |
| Low Price | 99.86 | 100.24 |
| Pre-auction mid | 99.838 | |
| Previous date | 27-Aug-25 |
FOREX: USDJPY Approaching Post-Fed Highs at 148.38
Sep-24 09:24
- The low yielders have been under pressure this morning, with USDJPY notably rising to within 10 pips of the post Fed highs at 148.38. Uncertainty regarding Japanese politics and the upcoming LDP leadership election may be playing its part here, while moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend for the pair. A resumption of gains would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high.
- Furthermore, the impressive grind higher for the likes of EURJPY and CHFJPY bolster the bearish yen theme. Fresh cycle highs for EURJPY today further consolidate the breach of 173.97 last week, keeping bullish conditions firmly intact. Sights are on 174.86 next, a Fibonacci projection, before the 2024 highs which reside at 175.43, a key medium-term resistance.
- US new home sales is the main data point later today, before Thursday’s US jobless claims data. It’s worth noting that Tokyo CPI is scheduled Friday.
FOREX: GBPUSD Hovers Above Trendline Support
Sep-24 09:22
- Over the course of the European morning, the US Dollar is trading with a supportive tone. Despite most major pairs remaining well within the post-Fed ranges, the likes of EUR and GBP have extended session declines to just shy of 0.4% in recent trade.
- For EURUSD, the solid amount of option expiries between 1.1750-1.1800 appear to have capped the overnight price action, with the pair slowly edging back below 1.1775 as we approach the NY crossover. Last week’s low at 1.1726 is the immediate point of reference on the downside, however, support to watch is at 1.1678. the 50-day EMA.
- GBPUSD has traded through the 50-day EMA, and this leaves support at 1.3458 exposed, a trendline drawn from the Aug 1 low. Clearance of this line would strengthen a bearish threat. Below here, key support resides at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low.
