ISRAEL: Air Force Hits Houthis After Drone Attack On Eilat
Israel has struck 'more than 13' Houthi targets in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a, including facilities belonging to the security and intel apparatus of the rebels and the HQ of the general staff. Israel's Channel 12 reports, "According to estimates, at least 50 operatives were eliminated". The strikes come a day after a Houthi drone struck the southern Israeli city of Eilat that injured 23, including two seriously.
- Ynet: "A resident of Sanaa told Ynet that "two missiles hit the same place where the Houthi government ministers were killed last month. My house shook and the people here are scared. The attack occurred at the exact moment the Houthi leader began his speech."
- Defence Minister Israel Katz said "We struck a powerful blow against many Houthi terror targets in Sana'a, as part of Operation 'Passing Package'.
- The Houthis continue to attack shipping in and around the Red Sea. With regional tensions only set to increase amid Israel's continued ground offensive in Gaza City and the imminent imposition of snapback sanctions on Iran, the Houthis (Iran's proxies in Yemen) could look to step up its offensive on shipping and/or Israel.
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MNI: US CONF BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 97.4 IN AUG V JUL 98.7
- MNI: US CONF BOARD CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 97.4 IN AUG V JUL 98.7
NETHERLANDS: PVV Still In Lead, But Short Of Potential Partners
The latest opinion poll, just over two months before the snap general elections, shows the right-wing Party for Freedom (PVV) of Geert Wilders retaining a narrow lead but likely well short of the numbers needed to re-enter gov't. The PVV's withdrawal from gov't in June set in motion the events that led to an early election. After a major swing to the right at the 2023 election, polling would appear to indicate that a more conventional coalition gov't formed by parties of the centre-left, centre, and centre-right looks the most likely to secure a stable majority.
- The centre-left/environmentalist GreenLeft-Labour (GL-PvdA) led by former European Commission Exec VP Frans Timmermans is in second place with a projected 29 seats, up four from the 2023 election. The centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA), a mainstay of Dutch governing coalitions through the post-war era, looks set to recover from its worst-ever result in 2023, with the latest poll showing the party set to win 22 seats. The poll shows that alongside the liberal Democrats 66 (10 seats) and conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (15 seats), the GL-PvdA and CDA would account for 76 seats, just over the majority threshold.
- While this is just a single opinion poll, the projected seat totals track with those recorded in other recent surveys. The PVV looks set to lose seats from its 2023 peak, and the number of parties on the right willing to work with the PVV in gov't will almost certainly fall well short of the majority threshold.
- The Netherlands has a long history of drawn-out coalition negotiations, and gov'ts formed of multiple parties, meaning that a parliament that initially appears fractured may in fact prove capable of putting together a stable coalition (whether minority or majority).
Chart 1. Hypothetical House of Representatives Composition, Seats
Source: Peil.nl. Based on 25 August opinion polling. Numbers in brackets indicate change in seats from 2023 election.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 6600.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6572.45 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6508.75 High Aug 15 and all-time High
- PRICE: 6454.25 @ 14:35 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 6362.75 Low Aug 20
- SUP 2: 6313.25 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 6304.76 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
The dominant uptrend in S&P E-Minis remains intact and last Friday’s rally reinforces current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear uptrend and positive market sentiment. Attention is on 6508.75, the Aug 15 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 6523.63, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at 6304.76, the 50-day EMA.
