US DATA: AHE Misses But Surprise Rise In Hours Worked More Than Compensate

May-02 12:43
  • AHE sees a 'low' 0.2% M/M to add to the miss to consensus of 0.3% M/M, but the non-supervisory measure firmed after a weaker March.
  • Further, the weakness in overall AHE should be more than offset by surprisingly firm weekly hours worked, beating expectations along with a second monthly upward revision.

Unrounded AHE figures:

Total AHE:

  • M/M (SA): 0.167% in Apr from 0.279% in Mar (initial 0.251%) and 0.195% in Feb (initial 0.223%)
  • Y/Y (SA): 3.77% in Apr from 3.836% in Mar

AHE Non-Supervisory:

  • M/M (SA): 0.323% in Apr from 0.162% in Mar (initial 0.162%) and 0.357% in Feb (initial 0.357%)
  • Y/Y (SA): 4.054% in Apr from 3.893% in Mar
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Historical bullets

EGB OPTIONS: Bobl Call Spread seller

Apr-02 12:37

OEK5 118.00/118.50cs sold at 22.5 in 10k.

CROSS ASSET: Some downside traction in Equities

Apr-02 12:33
  • Some pick up to the sell side in Equities, Tnotes looks to test the 4.1040% level in Yield equates to ~112.03, this was the March and the 2025 low in Yield.
  • The USDJPY will look for a break through the 149.00, if upside traction continues in Treasuries.
  • Resistance in Bund is unchanged at 129.63, this equates to 2.65%.
  • US Emini is eyeing a break through 5600.00, Yesterday's low.

US TSYS: Post-Post ADP Update

Apr-02 12:33
  • The post-ADP retreat off highs didn't last very long, Tsys making new highs again, Jun'25 10Y looking to breach March 4 high of 112-01 is trading at 111-31.5 (+6.5), getting a boost from weaker stocks (SPX eminis -5612.0 low).
  • Curves remain mixed, 2s10s -.932 at 27.440, 5s30s +.593 at 60.394. 10Y yield taps 4.125% low.