RATINGS: Affirmations Across The Board On Friday
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after-hours on Friday include:
- Fitch affirmed Norway at AAA; Outlook Stable
- Moody's affirmed Finland at Aa1; Outlook Stable
- DBRS Morningstar confirmed Austria at AAA, Stable Trend
- DBRS Morningstar confirmed Estonia at AA (low), Stable Trend
- DBRS Morningstar confirmed Luxembourg at AAA, Stable Trend
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Price Structure
- RES 4: 1.3192 1.00 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 8 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
- RES 2: 1.3079 High May 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.3017 High Jun 23
- PRICE: 1.2918 @ 16:59 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 1.2819/2807 Low Jun 28 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2732 61.8% retracement of the Jun 8 - 17 rally
- SUP 3: 1.2681 Low Jun 10
- SUP 4: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
USDCAD outlook remains bullish and the pair is trading above this week’s low. The recent corrective cycle appears to have stalled at Tuesday’s low of 1.2819. Looking at Japanese candle patterns, Tuesday is a doji pattern and this points to a short-term bullish reversal. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on resistance at 1.3079 the Jun 17 and a bull trigger. Firm support lies at 1.2807, the 50-day EMA.
AUDUSD TECHS: Clears Key Support
- RES 4: 0.7202 High Jun 9
- RES 3: 0.7138 High Jun 10
- RES 2: 0.7069 High Jun 16 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6979 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6794 @ 16:56 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 0.6764 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 0.6759, 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 0.6685 High Mar 9 2020
- SUP 4: 0.6647 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 12 - Jun 3 price swing
AUDUSD is softer and the pair has traded below its key short-term support at 0.6829, the May 12 low. The break of this support confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started in February 2021 and maintains a broader bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. The move lower signals scope for weakness towards 0.6759, the 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘ 21 bull cycle.
EURJPY TECHS: Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
- RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
- RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
- RES 1: 142.86/144.28 High Jun 30/28 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 140.58 @ 16:55 BST Jul 1
- SUP 1: 139.79 Low Jul 1
- SUP 2: 139.45 Low Jun 17
- SUP 3: 139.24/137.85 50-day EMA / Low Jun 16 and key support
- SUP 4: 136.25 Low May 30
EURJPY traded lower into the Friday close as the cross extends the reversal from Tuesday’s high of 144.28. Friday's weakness has resulted in a clear break of the 20-day EMA. This strengthens short-term bearish conditions and signals scope for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 139.24. This average represents an important short-term support. On the upside, the bull trigger is 144.28 where a break is required to confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
