EM CEEMEA CREDIT: AEFES: FY sales out

• RES 4: 96.83 2.618 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing   
• RES 3: 96.67 2.500 proj of the Nov 18 - 19 - 20 price swing   
• RES 2: 96.18/54 High Dec 5 / 3 
• RES 1: 95.16/95.73 20-day EMA / High Dec 10               
• PRICE: 94.32 @ Close Dec 13
• SUP 1: 94.12 Low Dec 13                      
• SUP 2: 93.96 Low Nov 22
• SUP 3: 93.40 Low Nov 18 and a key short-term support
• SUP 4: 93.00 Round number support 

Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would strengthen the bearish development and highlight a reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Initial resistance is at 95.16, the 20-day EMA.

Sovereign rating reviews of note released after hours on Friday include:

• Moody's affirmed Finland at Aa1; outlook stable
• Moody's downgraded France to Aa3; outlook stable
• Moody's downgraded Slovakia to A3, outlook stable
• S&P upgraded Cyprus To A-; Outlook Stable

• RES 4: 156.75 High Nov 15 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 155.89 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 154.84 76.4% retracement of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback
• RES 1: 153.97 Intraday high    
• PRICE: 153.67 @ 06:57 GMT Dec 16 
• SUP 1: 152.04 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 151.43 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 149.37 Low Dec 06 
• SUP 4: 148.65 Low Dec 03 and the bear trigger

USDJPY traded higher last week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and for now, signals scope for an extension higher. Sights are on 154.84, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bull cycle and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.