US DATA: ADP Rebenchmarking Aside, Weak Private Payrolls Trends Continue (1/2)
Oct-01 12:41
The ADP release for September was weak, showing the biggest private payrolls drop (-32k) since March 2023 and before that, Jun 2020. And the prior 54k was revised down to -3k, so the first back-to-back drops since the pandemic.
- This was a significant miss for private payrolls versus +51k expected. HOWEVER, this should be taken with caution since the ADP rebenchmarked in line with the BLS's QCEW rebenchmarking: "ADP conducted its annual preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report in September based on the full-year 2024 results of the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. This recalibration resulted in a reduction of 43,000 jobs in September compared to pre-benchmarked data. The trend was unchanged; job creation continued to lose momentum across most sectors."
- Months prior to August were not revised - so while the September ADP numbers would have "missed" even with 43k additional jobs, it wouldn't have been quite as bad.
- And the rebenchmarking does make September slightly hard to compare to recent months.
- That being said, the slowdown in payrolls growth continues, with the 3-month moving average of growth at 23k, and under 40k for 4 consecutive months now (ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson: "Despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter, this month's release further validates what we've been seeing in the labor market, that U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring."
- The ADP report is taking on outsized importance this month due to the very likely postponement of the Census Bureau's September Employment Report due to a federal government shutdown - there is no clean readthrough to what it means for private NFP payrolls consensus but we would expect a downward reconsideration from the 65k expected coming into this release.
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BONDS: EUREX Roll Pace
Sep-01 12:31
EUREX ROLL Pace as off Friday:
- Buxl: 18%.
- Bund: 17%.
- Bobl: 24%.
- Schatz: 16%.
- BTP: 10% (below pace).
- BTS: 16%.
- OAT: 18%.
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 1-7 September
Sep-01 12:20
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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.
Monday 1 September:
- European Union: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set to hold talks with Romanian President Nicusor Dan and PM Ilie Bolojan following a visit to Lithuania for talks with President Gitanas Nauseda and a visit to the Belarusian border. The trip has garnered significant attention after the EU confirmed that von der Leyen’s plane had been subject to an interference attack, with GPS navigation services at a Bulgarian airport disabled as her plane was set to land on 30 August. Russia is suspected to have carried out the operation, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied this to the FT.
- United Kingdom: Parliament returns from its summer recess for a short session ahead of the party conference recess that starts on 16 September. Focus during this session remains on when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announces a date for the budget, and speculation on what tax increases and/or spending cuts will be included.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Irish Inflation Accelerates With Core Also Firmer
Sep-01 12:15
Irish HICP headline inflation rose by 0.2pp to 1.8% Y/Y in August, its highest rate since April. It came with monthly inflation of 0.3% M/M. HICP excluding energy and unprocessed food inflation (i.e. a proxy for core) also firmed two tenths to 1.9% Y/Y in August.
- Energy inflation of -0.1% Y/Y marked a slight increase from the -0.3% Y/Y in July. It came as energy prices fell -0.3% M/M, similar to expectations for August on a Eurozone-wide basis more broadly.
- Food meanwhile accelerated to a firm 5.0% Y/Y, up from 4.6% in July.
- "Transport costs have fallen by 0.5% in the month and decreased by 2.4% in the 12 months to August 2025", the statistics office adds.
