EQUITY TECHS: AAII U.S. Equity Sentiment Hits Most Bearish Since Sep '22
Mar-13 12:56
Net sentiment surrounding U.S. equity markets moves slightly more bearish in the weekly update of the AAII survey, now sitting at the lowest level seen since September ’22.
- Note that the index tends to operate in negative territory and is viewed as a contrarian indicator.
Fig. 1: AAII Net U.S. Equity Sentiment
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OIL: Rally From February Lows Extends Further
Feb-11 12:52
WTI and Brent are more than $1 firmer on the day, ~$3 off their February lows.
- Our commodities team notes that today’s crude rally comes as the market weighs the impact of U.S. tariffs, increased geopolitical tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
- Initial resistance levels in WTI & Brent seen at $75.18 and $78.80, respectively, still more than $1 above prevailing levels.
NOK: EURNOK Up 0.2% Post GDP Reading, Crude Rally Offsets A Little
Feb-11 12:42
EURNOK has moved away from session highs of 11.5916, but remains 0.2% higher today. The weaker-than-expected Q4 mainland GDP reading spurred a light dovish reaction in NOK rates, but today’s rally in oil prices has dampened some of the FX feedthrough.
- After piercing 11.6000 yesterday, EURNOK was unable to test the November 25th low 11.5192. This level remains a key support.
- The 20-day EMA at 11.7025 provides initial resistance, clearance of which is required to undermine a bearish theme.
- Our commodities team have highlighted the impact of increased geopolitical tensions and risks of sanctions tightening supplies as drivers for today’s brent crude rally, weighed against the potential impact of US tariffs on global demand.
- Despite the Q4 GDP reading, Nordea still expect only two cuts in 2025 – the most hawkish view out of the analysts we track. They note that “the economy is not as weak as the headline numbers indicate and growth will pick up going forward”.
- Focus turns to Norges Bank Governor Wolden Bache's annual address on Thursday afternoon. SEB note that “the address aims at highlighting long-term and structural economic policy challenges”, so new policy hints are not the norm. If near-term policy considerations are raised in the speech, we expect guidance for a 25bp March cut to be re-iterated.
PIPELINE: Corporate/Supra-Sovereign Bond Issuance Roundup: Israel on Tap
Feb-11 12:35
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/11 $Benchmark Israel 5Y +150a, 10Y +165a
- 02/11 $700M Snap Inc 8NC3 7%a
- $9B Priced Monday
- 02/10 $6.5B *Eli Lilly $1B 3Y +27, $1.25B 5Y +42, $1B 7Y +50, $1.25B 10Y +60, $1.25B 30Y +80, $750M 40Y +90
- 02/10 $2B *Union Pacific $1B 10Y +65, $1B 30Y +88
- 02/10 $500M *Textron 10Y +102
