US DATA: A Rare Surprise Higher For Initial Jobless Claims, Post-Easter Caveat

Initial jobless claims surprised higher for the first time since Feb, although with caution needed considering it’s just one week of data and follows a later than usual Easter. We feel the breaking above a well-established range in continuing claims is of greater note but prior increases have seen some downward revisions. 

• Initial jobless claims increased to 241k (sa, cons 223k) in the week to Apr 26 after a marginally upward revised 223k (initial 222k).
• That is the first surprise higher since February after an impressive run.
• As always, take single week readings with some caution, especially considering the later timing of Easter this year, whilst noting that the four-week average of 226k. The latter is up from 221k but is still low historically (for example, it averaged 218k without controlling for strong population growth since then).
• Continuing claims meanwhile were more notable as they broke above a range established since late 2024, with 1916k (cons 1865k) in the week to Apr 19 after a downward revised 1833k (initial 1841k).
• These were last above 1900k in Nov 2021 although have had a tendency to being revised lower when probing recent highs.
• One side point ahead of tomorrow’s NFP release: the downward revision to continuing claims makes for a more favorable comparison to prior payrolls reference periods. The 1833k compares with 1847k in both Mar and Feb and 1849k in Jan.