US DATA: A Pause In The Push Higher Of Alternate CPI Y/Y Metrics
Oct-24 15:59
Regional Fed metrics and our estimates of dispersion suggest recent increases in underlying Y/Y inflation slowed in September.
- Cleveland Fed median eased 0.1pp to 3.50% Y/Y, its lowest since May having most recently peaked at 3.65% in July.
- Cleveland Fed trimmed mean eased 0.1pp to 3.20% Y/Y, its lowest since June after the 3.29% in August was its highest since mid-2024.
- The Atlanta Fed sticky core dipped 0.1pp to 3.33% Y/Y whilst the ex-shelter equivalent was unchanged at 2.90% Y/Y, a joint high since late 2024.
- The lack of additional inflationary pressures on a Y/Y basis echoes with our dispersion estimates:
- 42% of the entire CPI basket increased by more than 3% Y/Y in September for a second month running, its joint highest since Nov 2023.
- 28% of core goods increased by more than 3% Y/Y, down from 30% in Aug at was the highest since late 2023. This averaged 18.5% in 2019 or 12% through 2015-19.
- 62% of core services increased by more than 3% Y/Y, down from 64% in Aug at was the highest since late 2024. This averaged 38% in 2019 or 34% through 2015-19.
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US STOCKS: Late Morning Equities Roundup: Early Support Evaporates/Profit Taking
Sep-24 15:51
- After making modest gains early Wednesday, stocks are trading weaker - extending lows ahead midday as profit taking gathered momentum ahead of Thursday's heavy economic data and continued Fed speaker schedule.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 61.39 points (-0.13%) at 46236.27, S&P E-Minis down 16 points (-0.24%) at 6699.5, Nasdaq down 64.4 points (-0.3%) at 22513.08.
- A mix of Communication Services, Mining and Technology sector shares underperformed in the first half: after down-revising their third-quarter projections, Freeport-McMoRan fell -10.36%; Axon Enterprise -4.62%, Synopsys -4.30%, KKR & Co -4.26%, IDEXX Laboratories -3.90%, Electronic Arts -3.68%, Take-Two Interactive -3.59% and Adobe -3.32%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Consumer Discretionary sector shares led gainers in the first half, oil and gas stocks buoyed the former as crude prices climbed higher (WTI +1.19 at 64.60): Diamondback Energy +3.74%, APA Corp +3.31%, Phillips 66 +3.15%, Devon Energy +2.96% and ConocoPhillips +2.71%.
- Discretionary sector shares supported by Tesla +3.14%, Ross Stores +2.88%, Lennar Corp+2.37% and General Motors +1.76%.
US DATA: August Building Permits Upped Slightly, Still Weak
Sep-24 15:45
August building permits were revised up in the final reading to 1,330k (1,312k prelim).
- That's still a drop from 1,362k in July for a cycle low (weakest since 2019, ex-pandemic 2020).
- Single-family home permits were basically unrevised at 858k (856k prelim), with multi-units now estimated at 472k (456k prelim).
- This could on the margins lead to a small uptick in residential investment estimates, including the Atlanta Fed GDPNow reading due out Friday - it currently estimates -6.3% Q/Q SAAR residential investment, which had been downgraded from -4.6% after the preliminary housing data (starts could yet be revised in the September report due out October 17).
- But overall, there are no clear signs of a nascent pickup in residential investment activity.
FED: US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: HIGH MARGIN 0.200%; ALLOTMENT 44.42%
Sep-24 15:32
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: HIGH MARGIN 0.200%; ALLOTMENT 44.42%
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 28.87% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 0.89% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 70.23% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 1Y-10M FRN AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.15
