STIR: A Little Over 40bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Dec, BoE Speakers & DMP Due
GBP STIRs little changed to a touch more dovish this morning, following a modest dovish repricing into the close on Wednesday, largely driven by softer oil prices.
- BoE-dated OIS shows 15bp of cuts through August, 20bp through September, 34.5bp through November and 41.5bp through year-end.
- SONIA futures flat to +4.0. Implied terminal policy rate pricing on the strip has moved to 3.56%, ~22bp off May’s hawkish extreme.
- The latest BoE DMP survey headlines Thursday’s UK calendar. A reminder that the BoE has placed particular focus on labour market components within surveys, given the long-running issues with the ONS labour market data.
- Comments from BoE’s Breeden (09:30 London) & Greene (08:45 London) also due today, both have spoken since the May MPC.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Jun-25 | 4.212 | +0.1 |
Aug-25 | 4.060 | -15.1 |
Sep-25 | 4.010 | -20.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.867 | -34.4 |
Dec-25 | 3.797 | -41.4 |
Feb-26 | 3.692 | -51.9 |
Mar-26 | 3.672 | -53.9 |
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MNI: FRANCE MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.2% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y
- MNI: FRANCE MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION +0.2% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y
- FRANCE MAR MANUFACTURING OUTPUT +0.6% M/M, +0% Y/Y
USD: AUD is the early worst performer within G10s
- Overall a flat start for the Dollar, the greenback was under pressure Yesterday for most of the Day, but recovered following the strong US ISM Services and its Components.
- The Kiwi was the best performer overnight, up 0.25% at one point, back to flat now.
- NZDUSD failed to test the 0.6000 handle, printed 0.5996 high Yesterday and 0.5984 Today.
- Initial resistance is still at 0.6029, the April high and best traded level since November.
- The Aussie is now the worst performer, down 0.39%, and continues to unwind as the Dollar pares losses, after AUDUSD reached its best level since December at 0.6494 Yesterday.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Remains Above The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 5864.93 200-dma
- RES 3: 5837.25 High Mar 25 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 5773.25 High Apr 2
- RES 1: 5724.75 High May 2
- PRICE: 5651.75 @ 07:22 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 5511.99 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5355.25/5127.25 Low Apr 24 / 21 and a key support
- SUP 3: 4996.43 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 10 bounce
- SUP 4: 4832.00 Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
The latest recovery in the e-mini S&P reinforces current bullish conditions.The contract has breached the 50-day EMA, at 5622.87. A continuation of the bull phase would expose 5837.25 next, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger. It is still possible that the entire rally since Apr 7 is a correction. A reversal lower would signal the end of this corrective phase and expose initially, support at 5127.25, the Apr 21 low.
