FED: A Guide To Today’s Governor-Heavy Fedspeak
Jul-17 10:36
Along with a busy data docket including retail sales, import prices and jobless claims, today also sees Fedspeak from three permanent voters after Williams late yesterday. Kugler starts proceedings before an eagerly anticipated speech from Waller after the close. The increasingly dovish Waller is currently the last scheduled appearance before the FOMC media blackout starts Sat 0001ET.
- 0915ET – Gov. Kugler (permanent voter) on the housing market and economic outlook (text only). It will be a useful update after she said on Jun 5 "I view our current stance of monetary policy as well-positioned for any changes in the macroeconomic environment.” In May, she considered the policy stance as “somewhat restrictive”.
- 1245ET – SF Fed's Daly (non-voter) on Bloomberg TV. Talking at an MNI event on Jul 10, she thinks the Fed should start thinking about cutting interest rates, potentially twice this year, and it's possible that a large tariffs-driven increase in inflation does not materialize. To support a September rate cut, Daly said she's looking for "a continuation of what we've been seeing, which is modest" disinflation.
- 1330ET – Gov. Cook (permanent voter) on AI and innovation (text + Q&A). She hasn’t spoken since Jun 3 but those comments were noteworthy as she explicitly noted some openness to hikes when talking scenarios. “The current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to respond to a range of potential developments. […] "We have to be open to all possibilities. We don't know how tariffs are going to play out. One could imagine those scenarios - cutting, staying or hiking, happening."
- 1830ET – Gov. Waller (permanent voter, dove) on the economic outlook and mon pol (text + Q&A). He has continued to burnish his dovish credentials since the June FOMC, saying that Fed policy is too tight and it could consider cutting in July. Waller is likely one of the two June SEP dots for three cuts this year, with a reminder of how divided the FOMC is with seven dots looking for zero cuts.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
NOK: USDNOK hovers at session low
Jun-17 10:32
- USDNOK continues to hover near the intraday low, but Market Participants will have their eyes on the 9.8641 level, Yesterday's low, also the lowest print since January 2023 (prices are according to Bloomberg).
- A clear break through that level, would open Risks towards 9.7000 next.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices, 5Y TIPS
Jun-17 10:32
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 17-Jun 0830 Retail Sales Adv MoM (0.1%, -0.6%); Ex Auto (0.1%, 0.2%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (-0.2%, 0.3%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.2%), YoY (0.1%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 0830 Export Price Index MoM (0.1%, -0.2%), YoY (2.0%, 2.5%)
- 17-Jun 0830 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-16.2, --)
- 17-Jun 0915 Industrial Production MoM (0.0%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 0915 Capacity Utilization (77.7%, 77.7%)
- 17-Jun 0915 Manufacturing (SIC) Production (-0.4%, 0.1%)
- 17-Jun 1000 Business Inventories (0.1%, 0.0%)
- 17-Jun 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (34, 36)
- 17-Jun 1130 US Tsy $55B 6W bill auction
- 17-Jun 1300 US Tsy $23B 5Y TIPS re-open auction (91282CNB3)
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
ESM ISSUANCE: 6-Month ESM-Bill
Jun-17 10:32
| Type | 6-month bills |
| Maturity | Dec 18, 2025 |
| Amount | E1.097bln |
| Target | E1.1bln |
| Previous | E1.094bln |
| Avg yield | 1.946% |
| Previous | 1.973% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.32x |
| Previous | 2.89x |
| Previous date | May 20, 2025 |
