FED: A Guide To Today’s Fedspeak Deluge

Today sees a particularly heavy schedule for Fedspeak. Williams (leaning dove), Barr (leaning hawk), Paulson and Musalem (hawk) all are set to give their first appearance since last week’s FOMC meeting, perhaps helping flush out a range of views on December rate cut prospects after Powell noted a strongly divided committee. One area we’ll watch for is any softening in stance on the labor market after this morning’s sharp rise in Challenger layoffs, perhaps most notable if it comes from hawks Hammack and (after the close) Musalem.

• 0830ET – Goolsbee (’25, dove) on CNBC (and again on Newsmax at 1620ET). He said on Monday that he sees a higher bar for deciding to cut rates in December than in October. "I'm not decided going into the next meeting. I want to see how things are playing out." But he also points to potential for rates to come down "a fair amount".
• 1100ET – NY Fed Williams (voter) speaks in Frankfurt (text + Q&A). He signalled in a Sep 29 Q&A that he would be supportive of further rate cuts, saying "from my perspective, monetary policy has been and continues to be what we call restrictive." We think he's one of the 9 (of 19) FOMC members who is penciling in a total of 3 cuts by end-2025, including the one delivered last month.
• 1100ET – Gov. Barr (voter) in moderated discussion (no text). His Oct 9 speech appeared to confirm MNI's assumption that he was the most hawkish of the 8 permanent voters on the FOMC as of the September meeting. He’s probably one of the 7 on the 19-member FOMC who don't see further cuts this year, and the only permanent voter in that category. He calls for a "cautious" approach on adjusting rates and unlike many of his colleagues, doesn't suggest that some further easing toward a more neutral stance is warranted.
• 1200ET – Hammack (’26, hawk) speaks at Economic Club of NY (text + Q&A). Speaking on Oct 31, she “would have preferred to have held rates steady at [last week’s] meeting and not to reduce rates […] We're right around my estimate of neutral, and I think we're barely restrictive, if at all. And so I do think we need to maintain some amount of restriction to help bring inflation back down to target."
• 1530ET – Gov. Waller (voter, dove) in panel on central banking and payments (no text). He made clear on Oct 31 that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. “The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
• 1630ET – Paulson (’26) speaks on consumer finance (text only). She said in her debut speech on Oct 13 that the Fed should move cautiously. With rates " modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end.
• 1730ET – Musalem (’25, hawk) in fireside chat on mon pol (no text). He noted on Oct 17 that "I could support a path with an additional reduction in the policy rate if there are further risks to the labor market that emerge," and if the risks for persistent inflation remain contained. "I do think we need to not be on a preset course" and added "right now, I think it's particularly important to go meeting by meeting.