STIR: 9bps of Easing Priced Through Year-end, Today's Data Shouldn't Change That
ECB-dated OIS price 9bps of easing through year-end. Today’s regional data (September services PMIs and August PPI) are unlikely to change the outlook materially.
- Several ECB speakers are scheduled to speak today (Sleijpen, Lagarde once again, Wunsch and Schnabel), but we don’t expect major deviations from recent rhetoric. The median Governing Council member seems to agree that rates are in a good place at 2%.
- Euribor futures are flat to +1.0 ticks through the blues.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Oct-25 | 1.927 | 0.4 |
| Dec-25 | 1.911 | -1.2 |
| Feb-26 | 1.899 | -2.4 |
| Mar-26 | 1.857 | -6.6 |
| Apr-26 | 1.849 | -7.4 |
| Jun-26 | 1.831 | -9.2 |
| Jul-26 | 1.832 | -9.1 |
| Sep-26 | 1.843 | -8.0 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance L.P. | ||
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NORWAY: Fall In Q2 Vacancy Rate But No Labour Demand Alarm Bells
The Norwegian vacancy rate fell to 2.7% in Q2, down from 3.0% in Q1 and 2.8% in Q4. It’s the lowest rate since Q1 2021, though remains above the 2010-2019 average rate of 2.3%. As such, while there are some signs of softening labour demand, it’s not yet a smoking gun for Norges Bank to deliver another rate cut in September. There’s much more focus on next week’s inflation and Regional Network Survey data.
- In Q2, the only sectors which saw an increase in the vacancy rate were Agriculture, forestry and fishing (1.3% vs 1.1% in Q1) and Arts, entertainment, recreation and personal service activities (3.0% vs 1.9% in Q1).
- It’s worth noting that NAV’s tracking of job vacancies indicated a 2% Y/Y rise in vacancies in August – a somewhat stronger signal than Statistics Norway’s measure above.
- The Norwegian Beveridge curve shows slightly different dynamics when plotted against the NAV registered unemployment versus LFS unemployment series'. However, the broad picture in both is that the labour market is gradually loosening, but not concerningly so.
EGBS: Commerzbank Like Buying Bunds If Yields Top 2.80%
Commerzbank suggest that “several factors argue for the bearish long-end dynamics to lose momentum. 30-Year OAT yields stabilised around 4.50% and 10-Year Bunds found support around 2.80%. Duration demand was very strong at yesterday's 30-Year BTP syndication, an increasing number of investors tell us that they consider real yields attractive at these levels, and last but not least, risk-sentiment is under pressure. We would therefore buy Bunds dips above 2.80% in 10-Year yields”.
EGB FLOWS: EUREX ROLL PACE
EUREX ROLL pace (as of Yesterday):
- Buxl: 40%.
- Bund: 41%.
- Bobl: 58%.
- Schatz: 57%.
- BTP: 38%.
- BTS: 39%.
- OAT: 47%.
