STIR: 89bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through Year-end, Jan Services PMIs At 0815GMT
Little lasting reaction in EUR STIRs to the weaker-than-expected French industrial production data. Euribor futures are +0.5 to +3.0 ticks through the blues, strengthening alongside Bunds.
- ECB-dated OIS price 89bps of easing through year-end (vs 88bps at yesterday’s close).
- The January services and composite flash PMIs are due this morning (final reads for France, Germany and the Eurozone).
- The ECB will also release its latest forward wage tracker at 0900GMT/1000CET.
- ECB Chief Economist Lane speaks at the Peterson Institute at 1400GMT. Slides will be released.
- Yesterday evening, ECB President Lagarde had an “introductory meeting” with US Tsy Secretary Bessent to discuss “shared economic priorities and key policy areas of mutual interest”.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.411 | -25.7 |
| Apr-25 | 2.211 | -45.7 |
| Jun-25 | 2.020 | -64.7 |
| Jul-25 | 1.937 | -73.0 |
| Sep-25 | 1.845 | -82.2 |
| Oct-25 | 1.822 | -84.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.778 | -88.9 |
| Feb-26 | 1.774 | -89.4 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6006.92/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26
- PRICE: 5999.25 @ 07:45 GMT Jan 6
- SUP 1: 5911.25/5866.00 Low Jan 3 / Dec 20
- SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4
- SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present. The reversal lower from the Dec 26 high, highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. Attention is on 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. Clearance of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt opening calls, 91.91/91.95 range.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls, set for a Positive Open
The small early Risk On tone will see Cash European markets open in the Green this Morning, price action looked to be US led with the Emini just testing the January high, and the 6000.00 mark.
For VGH5, the index is still short of last Week's high of 4942.00.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.76%, Dax: +0.48%, CAC: +0.64%, FTSE +0.15%, SMI +0.65%.
