STIR: 50% EU Tariff Threats Shake Up What Had Been A Steady Week For Fed Rates

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 161.88 @ 16:19 GMT Apr 23 
• SUP 1: 160.99/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9    
• SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support 
• SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4 

EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The recent pullback appears corrective and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.     

• Stocks hold decently positive levels in late Wednesday trade - but well off this morning's knee-jerk rally as Treasury Sec Bessent through cold water on trade hopes, clarifying there is no unilateral offer from Trump to cut China tariffs, and that a full China trade deal could take two-to-three years.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 426.52 points (1.09%) at 39608.04 (40,376 high), S&P E-Minis up 95 points (1.79%) at 5409.5 (5499.75 high), Nasdaq up 465.6 points (2.9%) at 16762.93 (17029.86 high).
• Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors continued to outperform in late trade, leading gainers included Super Micro Computer +10.89%, Amphenol +10.39%, Palantir Technologies +9.00%, Dell Technologies +7.62%, Monolithic Power Systems +7.06% and Advanced Micro Devices +6.82%. Meanwhile, Tesla rallied 8.41% while Amazon gained 4.93%.
• Conversely, a mix of Consumer Staples, Energy and Real Estate sector shares continued to underperform: Enphase Energy -14.62%, Lennox International I-8.10%, American Tower -4.92%, SBA Communications -4.36%, Teledyne Technologies -3.54%, General Dynamics-3.46% and Bristol-Myers Squibb -2.99%.
• Meanwhile, a heavy earnings docket resumes after the close with the following reporting: Whirlpool Corp, Chipotle Mexican Grill, O'Reilly Automotive, Raymond James Financial, Molina Healthcare Alaska Air, Discover Financial Services, Rollins Inc, Newmont Corp, ServiceNow Inc, FirstEnergy Corp, Lam Research Corp, Texas Instruments Inc, Community Health Systems, IBM, United Rentals, Edwards Lifesciences, Viiking Therapeutics and Las Vegas Sands.

With Tsy Sec Bessent confirming to reporters that the US wouldn't require specific exchange rate targets for the yen in US-Japan trade talks ("absolutely no currency targets", Bessent is quoted as saying, per multiple wires), USDJPY has moved through the session high of 143.22 and now 1.3% higher on the session. Bessent had made similar comments earlier in the day in an interview with Nikkei and other media.

• The trend condition in USDJPY remains bearish and the bounce from Tuesday’s low (139.89) is considered corrective.
• That said, at the highest level since April 14 (last 141.49), Initial firm resistance identified by our tech analyst to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 144.90, about another 1% move from here.