UKRAINE: 3rd Round Of Talks Start This Evening, Little-To-No Progress Expected
Russia's state-run TASS has confirmed that the third round of direct talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegations will get underway in Istanbul, Turkey, this evening (23 July). The talks had been widely trailed, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy approving his country's delegation to be led by National Security and Defence Council Secretary (and defence minister until earlier this week) Rustem Umerov.
- Expectations for the talks are effectively non-existent. Kremlin spox Dmitry Peskov said on 22 July that observers should not expect any 'miraculous breakthroughs' from the discussions. The previous two rounds have only managed to reach agreements on low-level issues such as the exchanges of PoW and combatants' remains.
- For Russia, its forces have been making slow but steady progress in the Donbas, reducing Moscow's impetus to agree to a ceasefire. Kyiv may prove emboldened in talks following US President Donald Trump's permitting of NATO purchases of American Patriot missiles and other weaponry to send to Ukraine.
- In order for any notable progress to be made in future talks, the participation of both national leaders is likely to be required. So far, Russia has categorically refused this, claiming Zelenskyy is an illegitimate president. The prospect of Trump attending could change this calculation, but there is no sign of such movement yet.
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PIPELINE: Denmark 2-year USD Benchmark: Mandate
"The Kingdom of Denmark (DENK), rated Aaa/AAA/AAA (all stable), has mandated Danske Bank, HSBC, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley as Joint Lead Managers for a new 2-year USD 144A/REGS benchmark senior unsecured transaction. The issue is expected to be launched in the near future subject to market conditions".
From market source.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Hit Fresh Cycle High, Bull Cycle Remains Intact
A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the contract has delivered a fresh cycle high today. Price action is likely to remain volatile near-term, and from a technical standpoint, the trend remains in an extreme overbought position. A continuation higher would expose the $80.00 handle. A firm support is noted at $67.11, the Jun 13 low. A breach of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and last week’s pullback is considered corrective. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance at $3435.6, the May 7 high, has recently been pierced. A clear break of this level would strengthen the uptrend and open $3500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Initial key support to monitor is $3282.7, the 50-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.2 or -0.27% at $73.61
- Natural Gas up $0.02 or +0.62% at $3.871
- Gold spot down $6.07 or -0.18% at $3361.99
- Copper down $2.5 or -0.51% at $485.95
- Silver up $0.19 or +0.53% at $36.2127
- Platinum up $28.23 or +2.23% at $1296.87
EQUITIES: Short-Term Bear Cycle in Eurostoxx 50 Futures Still in Play
A short-term bear cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and the contract has traded to a fresh cycle low today. Recent weakness has resulted in a breach of the 50-day EMA. Price has also traded through 5279.00, May 23 low. The clear break of both support points signals a S/T top and scope for a deeper retracement. Sights are on 5182.00, the May 2 low and 5100.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial resistance is 5343.47, the 20-day EMA. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish. For now, the most recent shallow pullback is considered corrective. The contract has pierced support at 6007.80, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would suggest potential for a deeper retracement and expose the 50-day EMA, at 5906.79. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 49.14 pts or -0.13% at 38354.09 and the TOPIX ended 10.08 pts lower or -0.36% at 2761.18.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 21.686 pts or +0.65% at 3381.582 and the HANG SENG ended 158.65 pts higher or +0.67% at 23689.13.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.7 pts or 0% at 23348.23, FTSE 100 higher by 3.44 pts or +0.04% at 8778.08, CAC 40 down 1.39 pts or -0.02% at 7587.47 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 8.75 pts or +0.17% at 5241.86.
- Dow Jones mini up 51 pts or +0.12% at 42565, S&P 500 mini up 14.25 pts or +0.24% at 6032, NASDAQ mini up 61.25 pts or +0.28% at 21904.5.
