US TSYS: 30s Sees Return Of Underperformance, Auction To Test Duration Demand
Apr-10 11:08
- Treasuries mostly trade firmer on the day, with gains led by 5s in a paring of yesterday’s risk-on moves seen after Trump further lifted tariffs on China but a broader 90-day pause and 10% reciprocal tariffs elsewhere.
- Cash yields are 6bp lower (5s) to 1bp higher (30s) on the day. 30s lag the decline after yesterday’s substantial flattening as the announcement helped further abate long-end deleveraging after a strong 10Y auction which saw a record high for indirect take-up. Today’s 30Y auction offers another litmus test of duration demand.
- In the interim, the US CPI report (preview) and jobless claims at 0830ET will be watched closely before a raft of Fedspeak plus of course continued sensitivity to US policy headlines
- Curves are mixed today, with 2s10s at 44bp (+0.5bp) broadly consolidating yesterday’s flattening from ~67bp pre tariff announcements but 5s30s at 77bp (+6.5bp) for a greater reversal back towards ~85bp pre-announcement.
- TYM5 trades at 111-02+ (+24) off an earlier high of 111-09 but still well within yesterday’s wide range. Cumulative volumes are elevated at 655k but low compared to recent overnight sessions.
- Yesterday’s low of 110-01 stopped short of trendline support at 109-30+ (drawn from Jan 13 low) whilst resistance is seen at 112-08 (Apr 8 high).
- Data: CPI Mar (0830ET), Real av hourly earnings Mar (0830ET), Weekly jobless claims (0830ET), Federal budget bal Mar (1400ET)
- Fedspeak: Logan (0930ET), Bowman nomination hearing (1000ET), Schmid (1000ET), Goolsbee (1200ET), Harker (1200ET) – see separate FED bullet
- Coupon issuance: $22B 30Y bond re-open - 912810UG1 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: $85B 4W, $75B 8W bill auctions (1130ET)
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FINLAND T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 8/11-Month RFTBs
Mar-11 11:05
| Type | 8-month RFTB | 11-month RFTB |
| Maturity | Nov 13, 2025 | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Amount | E685mln | E1.317bln |
| Target | E2bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.008bln | E960mln |
| Avg yield | 2.27% | 2.29% |
| Previous | 2.350% | 2.895% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.29x | 1.4x |
| Previous | 1.91x | 1.47x |
| Previous date | Feb 11, 2025 | Sep 10, 2024 |
Source: Bloomberg
US TSYS: J.P.Morgan Suggest Depleted Liquidity Factored Into Monday's Rally
Mar-11 11:00
Further to our previous Tsy bullet, J.P.Morgan have noted that “the magnitude of Monday’s rally could have been exacerbated by the low level of liquidity, as market depth declined to near its lowest levels this year.”
- Their market depth monitor assesses immediate market depth across 2-, 5-, 10- & 30-Year cash benchmarks at 08:30-10:30 NY on a daily basis.
US TSYS: Latest Gains Pared Amidst Solid Volumes, JOLTS and 3Y Supply Later On
Mar-11 10:56
- Treasuries sit mildly twist flatter having pared further large dovish moves with and shortly after the Asia open. The subsequent shift off highs has come with some stabilization in equities after yesterday’s heavy declines on growth concerns emanating from US policies.
- Today sees further labor data headlining the docket with the January JOLTS report, but with upcoming CPI/PPI reports on Wed/Thu looming large. It’s followed by 3Y supply after last month’s auction stopped through by 1.2bp along with a sizeable rise in indirect take-up.
- Cash yields range from 1.4bp higher (2s) to 0.3bp lower (30s).
- 2s10s sits at 31.9bp (-1.4bp) as it remains within recent ranges having steepened in early March.
- TYM5 is back little changed on the day at 111-09+ (-01) having pulled back from highs of 111-25, with heavy cumulative volumes of 635k.
- The trend structure remains bullish and the overnight high cleared resistance at 111-15 (Mar 5 high) to open 112-01 (Mar 4)/112-02 (Fibo projection).
- Data: JOLTS Jan (1000ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $58B 3Y Note Auction - 91282CMS7 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: $70B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
