US TSYS: 2YY Yields Probe Significant 3.5% Level
Apr-04 10:55
- Treasuries have surged further as China trade retaliation has sparked a sharp risk-off wave on top of already bearish sentiment seen overnight.
- Cash yields are 11.5-17.5bp lower on the day, with declines led by 3s.
- 2Y yields look to test 3.50% (hit 3.5001%). They bottomed out at 3.5000% in Sep 2024 at levels otherwise last seen in Sep 2022.
- 10Y yields cleared 3.8811% (76.4% retrace of Sep/Jan range) with a low of 3.873%, currently within 1bp of that level.
- 2s10s briefly hit new recent highs of 38bps (steepest since Jan 24), currently at 36.9bp (+1.9bp).
- TYM5 trades at 113-29 (+ 1-08+) just off highs of 113-30+ on another overnight session with huge cumulative volumes (over 1.25mln).
- Another firm clearance of resistance sees the round 114-00 as a next level after which lies 114-16 (Fibo projection). Support is seen at 112-01 (Mar 4 high and recent breakout level).
- Data: Payrolls (0830ET) – MNI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USNFP_Apr2025_Preview_a7264d37f7.pdf
- Fedspeak: Powell on economic outlook (1125ET, text + Q&A), Barr on AI and banking (1200ET, text + Q&A), Waller on payments (1245ET, Q&A)
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EGB SYNDICATION: German 30-year syndication: Launched
Mar-05 10:53
- Spread previously set at 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (DE000BU2D004) MID +3.25bp (guidance was +4bp area)
- Size: E6bln (inc E1bln retained) (same as last year).
- Books closed in excess of E36bln (inc E1.95bln JLM interest). Smaller than the E74bln and E46bln seen on the two 30-year syndications in 2024.
- Maturity: 15 August 2056
- Coupon: 2.90%, long first
- Settlement: 12 March 2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: DE000BU2D012
- Bookrunners: Barclays / BofA / Commerzbank / Deutsche Bank / Morgan Stanley (DM/B&D)/ NatWest
- Timing: Allocations and pricing to follow
From market source / MNI colour
JPY: Couple of Yen Exchange traded Options
Mar-05 10:48
- JPYUSD (expiry Friday) 64p sold at 0.025 and 0.020 in ~1.37k (could be closing).
- JPYUSD 65.25p, sold at 0.05 in 2.1k, looking for Yen bid, suggest new short term position, playing NFP.
BONDS: German Yields remain elevated
Mar-05 10:34
German longer end Yields have led rallies Yesterday and into Today, both the 10yr and the 30yr have printed their highest levels since November 2023.
Looking at the shorter end 5s (Bobl), the Yield has managed to break above the February high but is still some way short of the January 2025 high of 2.463%, which was also its highest printed level since mid November 2024.
For the 2yr (Schatz) Yield, the February high comes at 2.187%, while most would be looking for resistance at 2.20% initially.
Today, reference 106.725:
- 2.187% = 106.685.
- 2.200% = 106.665.
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Dec-05 15:48
