ICE EUA FUTURES TECHS: (25) Bull Cycle Intact
Oct-23 12:43
- RES 4: €84.50 - High Jan 30 and a key resistance
- RES 3: €84.25 - High Feb 10
- RES 2: €82.12 - High Feb 12
- RES 1: €80.37 - High Oct 10 and bull trigger
- PRICE: €78.24 @ 13:32 BST Oct 23
- SUP 1: €76.41 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: €71.31 - Low Aug 28
- SUP 3: €68.71 - Low Jun 30 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: €66.70 - Low May 5
ICE EUA futures continue to trade closer to their trend highs. A bull cycle remains intact. Support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, currently at €76.41. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback. For bulls, sights are on €80.37, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open €82.12.
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MNI: US Q2 CURRENT ACCOUNT GAP -$251.3B
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BTP: Block Trade
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BTP Block trade seller:
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FED: Rates Shrug Off Miran As Hawks Express Caution (2/2)
Sep-23 12:26
Summing up the highlights of Monday's busy Fed speaker list, it was three of the most hawkish-leaning members on the Committee, alongside the biggest dove:
- New Fed Governor Miran unsurprisingly argued for significantly lower policy interest rates in his first prepared remarks (link) since being appointed to the Board, calling current rates "very restrictive". It's not often that a day bringing a Fed Governor's call for swift 200bp of cuts (seeing the "appropriate" Fed funds rate "almost 2 percentage points lower than current policy") delivers a shrugged off market reaction - but It's clear Miran is seen as an outlier on the Committee and it was known from last week that he was the lowest "dot" in the latest Dot Plot.
- St Louis Fed President Musalem (2025 FOMC voter, hawk) says he supported the 25bp cut in September as a "precautionary move" "because recent data indicate that the downside risks to employment have increased relative to the risk of inflation remaining persistently above target", however he calls for a cautious approach to easing because "I see a risk that above-target inflation could be more persistent than is desirable".
- Atlanta Fed President Bostic (non-2025/non-2026 FOMC voter) appears to have stuck to his pre-September Fed meeting outlook for just 1 cut this year, telling the WSJ in an interview that "I had one cut for this year. I didn't say the timing for that. So this could easily be the one cut. And so for that, I'm fine with it. I think moving forward, the data is going to be really important and here's what I would say. Forecasting is really hard these days and so I still have one cut down for the year. So that would be it."
- Cleveland Fed President Hammack (hawk, 2026 FOMC voter) sounds extremely cautious about making further cuts: "I am laser focused on inflation. And that's why to me, I think that we should be very cautious in removing monetary policy restriction, because I think it's important that we stay restrictive to bring inflation back down to target." She says she she has "one of the highest estimates" of the neutral rate on the Committee, and thinks policy is only "very mildly restrictive after last week's move", so a "very short distance to neutral". She's very likely one of the highest 2025 dots (possibly the 7 seeing no further cuts this year as of September), and, we would guess, one of the 6-8 highest submissions for end-2026 (who saw 3.6 or 3.9% rates). The three highest longer-run dots on the FOMC are 3.6%, 3.75%, and 3.9%, each of which was selected by one participant.
