THAILAND: 2024 Customs Trade Deficit Widens
Jan-23 04:09
Thailand’s December customs trade deficit narrowed significantly more than expected printing at $11mn following $224mn. Export growth picked up to 8.7% y/y from 8.2% and imports to 14.9% from 0.9%. When smoothed for monthly volatility both are running at 10.5% y/y 3-month moving average.
- The 2024 trade deficit widened to $6.3bn from $3.4bn the previous year. While export growth improved it underperformed imports, signalling reasonable domestic demand in an economy that has been underperforming ASEAN.
- USDTHB has trended higher during today’s APAC trading and took a step up following the trade data. The pair is up 0.4% to 33.95, off the intraday high of 33.99, after trending lower from mid-January when it peaked at 34.83. The JP Morgan THB NEER is 1.8% higher since January 14.
Thailand customs basis exports vs imports y/y% 3-mth ma
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
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FOREX: USD Modestly Higher, Yen Pares Losses Post FinMin Warning
Dec-24 01:35
Early G10 FX trends are skewed towards the USD, albeit with modest moves overall. AUD and NZD are seeing some slight underperformance (which followed some outperformance on Monday). Rhetoric around FX moves has crossed from the Japan FinMin as well.
- The reaction so far from USD/JPY has been limited. We were last 157.15/20, close to unchanged for the session. Earlier highs were at 157.39.
- Japan FinMin Kato reiterated recent concerns on FX - "JAPAN FINMIN KATO: CONCERNED ABOUT RECENT FX MOVES, RTRS" "JAPAN FINMIN KATO: RECENTLY SEEING ONE-SIDED, SHARP FX MOVES" and that the authorities will take action against excessive moves.
- USD/JPY is still sub post BoJ highs (157.93), with these comments highlighting intervention risks as we approach the holiday period. Earlier the BoJ minutes from the Oct policy meeting came and went with little market reaction.
- AUD/USD sits down around 0.20%, last near 0.6235/40. Downside focus will rest on the 0.6199 low seen recently. The RBA minutes from the Dec meeting were out earlier. Upside risks to inflation have diminished but it was still too soon to be confident that inflation is sustainably at target.
- NZD/USD is also lower, last near 0.5635/40. Also, still up from recent cycle lows.
- Trends are biased in favour of the USD elsewhere, but aggregate moves are modest. In the cross asset space, US equity futures are down a touch, along with US yields, but again overall moves are modest.
- There is little in the way of further risk events for the remainder of today's Asia Pac session.
CHINA: Central Bank Drains Liquidity via OMO.
Dec-24 01:27
- PBOC issues CNY64.1bn of 7-day reverse repo.
- Today’s maturities CNY355.4bn
- Net Liquidity withdrawal CNY291.3bn.
- The PBOC controls liquidity in the interbank market through the daily issuance of reverse repo.
MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY64.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES
Dec-24 01:24
- CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY64.1 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES
