FRANCE: 15 March Municipal Elections Could Show Important Trends Pre-2027 (2/2)

On the moderate right, the question is whether the conservative Les Républicains (LR) will maintain a cordon sanitaire around the far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN), or join in a broader right-wing alliance in certain municipalities if there is a risk of LFI gaining control.

• The elections will also be watched to gauge the RN's ability to gain traction outside its historical heartlands in the Languedoc-Roussillon and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur regions along the Mediterranean coast. Winning the mayoralty of the historically left-leaning city of Marseille would be a massive coup. The RN winning more municipalities, particularly in areas such as the northern and eastern regions of Hauts-de-France, Grand Est and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, where RN parliamentary leader Marine Le Pen has performed well in past presidential elections.
• A race that will have a direct impact on the presidential election is that for the mayoralty of the Normandy port city of Le Havre. Former PM Edouard Philippe has served as mayor since 2020 (and before that from 2010 to 2017), and is seeking another term. Leader of the centre-right Horizons party that sits as part of PM Sebastien Lecornu's centrist minority gov't, Philippe has also announced his intention to run for the presidency in 2027. Opinion polling shows him as one of the few centrist politicians who may have a chance of beating an RN candidate in a prospective run-off. However, facing a stern challenge from the far left, defeat in Le Havre could scupper Philippe's chances before the campaign gets underway in earnest. 

Chart 1. Mayoral Elections Opinion Polling, %