FRANCE: 15 March Municipal Elections Could Show Important Trends Pre-2027 (1/2)

The first round of municipal elections takes place on 15 March, ahead of second round run-offs on 22 March. These elections will not be market-moving in the sense that they will not impact gov't policy making or threaten the continuation of the Lecornu administration. However, they may be instructive for certain political trends ahead of the all-important presidential election in 2027. 

• The elections will be for nearly 35,000 municipal councillors and 1,200 community councillors across the country, ranging from small village councils to the mayoralties of Paris, Marseille, and Lyon.
• A proportional election system is used. In the first round, if a party list receives an absolute majority in a municipality, it is awarded half the council seats. The remaining seats are distributed proportionally with a 5% threshold. If no party list wins an absolute majority in the first round, all lists recieving 10% of the vote are eligible for the second round.
• Given the prospect of three-, four-, or even five-party contests in the second round, there will be a focus on how parties on the same side of the political spectrum form (or do not form) alliances. Historically, if candidates from the far-right have made a run-off, parties of the left, centre-left and centre have stood down in favour of the most likely candidate to beat the far right as part of a so-called 'republican front'.
• However, relations between the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI, France Unbowed) and the centre-left Socialist Party (PS) have hit rock bottom. Indeed, for LFI one of the main objectives for the elections is to oust the PS at the local level as the main party of the left they have done so effectively at the national level in recent years. As such there is no guarantee any agreement will be possible in second-round voting.