UK T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 1/3/6-month UKTBs
Dec-19 11:06
Unsurprisingly smaller than usual sizes for the Christmas Eve auction next week.
| 1-month | 3-month | 6-month | |
| Maturity | Jan 19, 2026 | Mar 23, 2026 | Jun 22, 2026 |
| Amount | GBP1.0bln | GBP2.0bln | GBP3.0bln |
| Previous | GBP1.0bln | GBP2.0bln | GBP3.0bln |
| Avg yield | 3.7845% | 3.8599% | 3.8176% |
| Previous | 3.8659% | 3.8833% | 3.8295% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.48x | 2.18x | 2.6x |
| Previous | 2.61x | 2.11x | 2.83x |
| Next week | GBP0.5bln | GBP1.5bln | GBP2.0bln |
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EGB OPTIONS: Bund Put Fly buyer
Nov-19 11:04
RXF6 129/128/127p fly, bought for 20 in 3k.
EQUITY TECHS: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In S&P E-Minis Still In Play
Nov-19 11:01
- In the equity space, S&P E-Minis maintain a softer short-term tone. The breach of support at 6655.70, the Nov 7 low cancels recent bullish signals and signals scope for an extension of the current corrective cycle. Note that price has also breached support at the 50-day EMA. An extension would open 6540.25, the Oct 10 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 6779.00, the 20-day EMA.
- A medium-term bull trend in EUROSTOXX 50 futures remains intact, however, the latest sell-off highlights a stronger corrective cycle. The move down this week has resulted in the breach of two key support points; 5603.68, the 50-day EMA, and 5610.00, the base of a bull channel drawn from the Aug 1 low. The breach signals scope for a deeper pullback and opens 5503.00, a 50.0% retracement of the Aug 1 - Nov 13 bull cycle. Initial firm resistance to watch is 5662.67, the 20-day EMA.
UK: Gilts & GBP Softer As Starmer's Future Questioned
Nov-19 10:59
Weakness in gilt futures extends on a break of yesterday’s low, with Monday’s low (91.94) breached and activity in the contract picking up. GBP also weaker in tandem.
- Next support in gilt futures located ay 91.82, lows of 91.86 registered before a recovery to 92.00.
- Little in the way of an overt fresh catalyst to drive the move, perhaps ongoing digestion of the source report from The Times, which noted that the soft-left 'Tribune' group within the Parliamentary Labour Party has garnered the 80 MPs required to launch a formal leadership challenge against PM Sir Keir Starmer, is filtering through.
- Note that the group hasn’t been able to coalesce around a new leadership candidate at this stage. The report also notes "...another member of the group said their colleagues were living in “cloud-cuckoo-land” and warned that the public would not reward them for a “destructive” leadership challenge.
- While we would argue that markets already price the medium-term demise of PM Starmer (Smarkets odds imply only 15.6% odds of him leading the Labour Party at the next election) the potential for a new PM and resulting shake up of fiscal policy may weighing on GBP & gilts here.
