UK T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 1/3/6-month UKTBs
| 1-month | 3-month | 6-month | |
| Maturity | Oct 20, 2025 | Dec 22, 2025 | Mar 23, 2026 |
| Amount | GBP1.0bln | GBP2.5bln | GBP3.0bln |
| Previous | GBP1.0bln | GBP2.5bln | GBP3.0bln |
| Avg yield | 3.9953% | 4.0850% | 4.0698% |
| Previous | 3.9937% | 4.0756% | 4.0600% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.96x | 2.14x | 3x |
| Previous | 3.21x | 2.55x | 3.05x |
| Next week | GBP1.0bln | GBP2.5bln | GBP3.0bln |
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SOFR: Mix Of Long Setting & Short Cover In Futures On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover as SOFR futures generally ticked higher on Tuesday. There wasn’t much in the way of meaningful positioning swings in individual contracts and wider packs.
| 19-Aug-25 | 18-Aug-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRM5 | 1,198,843 | 1,199,163 | -320 | Whites | -14,744 |
SFRU5 | 1,284,078 | 1,287,739 | -3,661 | Reds | -3,009 |
SFRZ5 | 1,418,700 | 1,424,297 | -5,597 | Greens | +5,013 |
SFRH6 | 1,036,778 | 1,041,944 | -5,166 | Blues | -9,790 |
SFRM6 | 933,170 | 927,706 | +5,464 |
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SFRU6 | 895,297 | 892,416 | +2,881 |
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SFRZ6 | 996,855 | 1,005,589 | -8,734 |
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SFRH7 | 736,485 | 739,105 | -2,620 |
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SFRM7 | 904,136 | 907,303 | -3,167 |
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SFRU7 | 590,855 | 590,453 | +402 |
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SFRZ7 | 599,716 | 596,896 | +2,820 |
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SFRH8 | 354,290 | 349,332 | +4,958 |
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SFRM8 | 275,193 | 273,561 | +1,632 |
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SFRU8 | 207,518 | 205,338 | +2,180 |
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SFRZ8 | 218,526 | 231,675 | -13,149 |
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SFRH9 | 150,758 | 151,211 | -453 |
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EUROPEAN INFLATION: Services Upward Revision Flattered By Rounding, 3-Year Low
Eurozone final July HICP inflation was revised marginally higher, to 2.04% Y/Y (vs 2.02% flash, 1.99% prior). Core inflation was 2.31% Y/Y, up from 2.29% in the flash and 2.31% prior, driven by services being revised up to 3.15% Y/Y (vs 3.13% flash, 3.32% prior).
- This means the 0.1pp services upward revision on a rounded basis (to 3.2% Y/Y) is less material than it may appear on first sight and it compares with 4.0% Y/Y from July 2024. On a rounded basis, services was now "only" the joint lowest since March 2022.
- Non-energy industrial goods inflation was upwardly revised to 0.76% (0.75% flash, 0.52% prior). Some national-level data suggested that this comes amid less material or changing seasonal patterns on summer clothing sales.
- Energy deflation meanwhile was also trimmed to -2.39% Y/Y (-2.46 flash, -2.59 prior).
- Headline excluding tobacco printed 1.97% Y/Y in the final release.
GERMAN AUCTION RESULTS: Aug-54 Line Very Weak
Very weak Bund auction on the Aug-54 line with a 1.03x bid-to-cover and 0.79x bid-to-offer. The low price achieved at the auction was also lower than the pre-auction midprice.
- The 1.03x bid-to-cover is the lowest seen since 2018 in the German 30-year segment.
- The line is seeing some contained weakness, printing 85.440 vs 85.560 right before the auction.
- The Aug-46 line fared better, with solid demand metrics and the low price achieved at the auction above the pre-auction mid.
- Bund futures came off the highs past the auction.
