POWER: 1.1GW Forsmark 1 Has Unplanned 157MW Cut

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.95 - High Oct 24 
• PRICE: $64.64 @ 07:03 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: $59.97 - Low Nov 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

Brent futures are trading inside a range. A sell-off on Nov 12 highlights a bearish development. A resumption of weakness would expose key support and the bear trigger at $59.97, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle. Note it is still possible that a bullish corrective cycle remains in play. A breach of resistance at $65.95, the Oct 24 high, would signal scope for a stronger recovery near-term.

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 120.76 @ Close Nov 18
• SUP 1: 120.53 Low Nov 14           
• SUP 2: 120.15 50.0% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 119.73 61.8% retracement of the Sep 3 - Oct 17 bull leg
• SUP 4: 119.07 Low Sep 25

The trend set-up in BTP futures is bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. However, the contract has breached support at 120.74, the Aug 5 high, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 120.76. A continuation lower would highlight potential for a deeper correction and expose 120.15, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.94, the Oct 17 high. A break of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.

• RES 4: 156.58 2.236 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 3: 156.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 1: 155.73 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 155.49 @ 07:06 GMT Nov 19
• SUP 1: 153.68 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 151.74 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

A fresh cycle high in USDJPY yesterday confirms once again a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. Note that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the 156.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch is 153.68, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.