STIR: 11bp Of Cuts Seen For Sept With Payrolls, ISM Mfg and Fedspeak Tomorrow

When asked in Q&A at a visit of the "Alligator Alcatraz" detention facility, President Trump offered the possibility of arresting Mamdani, the winner of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary. 

• Q: Zohran Mamdani in his nomination speech said he will defy ICE and will not allow ICE to arrest criminal aliens in NYC. What's your message to communist Zohran Mamdani?
• Trump: Well then we'll have to arrest him. Look, we don't need a communist in this country, but if we have one, I'm going to be watching over him very carefully on behalf of the nation.

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1865 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1830 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.1774 @ 15:59 BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12 and a recent breakout level
• SUP 2: 1.1554 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19  
• SUP 4: 1.1389 50-day EMA

The trend set-up in EURUSD strengthened further Tuesday and the pair continues to appreciate. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of resistance and a bull trigger at 1.1631, the Jun 12 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The 1.1800 handle has been pierced, sights are on 1.1851, the Sep 10 2021 high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1554, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.       

Tuesday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

• RXV5 126.50/125.0/125.00p fly, bought for 12 in 2k
• ERZ5 98.25c vs 2RZ5 98.00c, bought the 2yr for 1 in 10k. also bought Yesterday in 15k
• ERM6 97.75p, bought for 4.25 in 6k total
• ERU6 98.68/98.87cs x4.5 vs ERU6 98.25p x0.5, bought the cs for flat in 36k x 4k
• 0RQ5 98.125/98.1875/98.25/98.3125c condor, bought for 1.75 in 3k
• SFIU5 96.20/96.30/96.40/96.50 call condor, paper pays 2 for 8k
• SFIZ5 96.20/96.30cs, sold at 7 in 8k
• SFRZ5 96.25/96.00 1x2 put spread 2K given at 3.25