EURJPY TECHS: The 144.25 Bull Trigger Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 146.74 High Dec 30, 2014
- RES 3: 145.00/58 Round number resistance / High Dec 31 2014
- RES 2: 144.58 0.764 proj of Mar 7 - 28 - Apr 5 swing
- RES 1: 144.25 High Jun 8 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 141.64 @ 16:00 BST Jun 23
- SUP 1: 140.62 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 138.29/37.85 50-day EMA and key support / Low Jun 16
- SUP 3: 136.25 Low May 30
- SUP 4: 134.99 Low May 25
EURJPY maintains a bullish outlook following this week’s gains and the extension of the bull run from 137.85, Jun 16 low. This has exposed the bull trigger at 144.25, Jun 8 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and open the 145.00 handle. Moving average studies remain in bull mode, clearly highlighting current bullish sentiment. Initial firm support is seen at 140.62, the 20-day EMA.
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EURGBP TECHS: Bulls Return
- RES 4: 0.8658 High Sep 29 2021
- RES 3: 0.8643 High Sep 30 2021
- RES 2: 0.8619 High May 12 and bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8587 High May 24
- PRICE: 0.8562 @ 17:21 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 0.8433 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 0.8393/ 0.8391 Low May 17 / 61.8% of Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.8337 76.4% retracement of the Apr 14 - May 12 upleg
EURGBP rallied Tuesday and cleared initial resistance at 0.8534, May 16 high. The strong gains and break of resistance reinstates a short-term bullish theme and attention turns to resistance at 0.8619, the May 12 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. Clearance of this level would resume a 3.5 month uptrend. On the downside, initial support lies at Monday’s intraday low of 0.8433.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (M2) Gains Still Considered Corrective
- RES 3: 98.350 - High Mar 3
- RES 2: 97.975 - High Mar 16
- RES 1: 97.530 - High Mar 31
- PRICE: 97.180 @ 17:46 BST May 24
- SUP 1: 97.675 - Low May 4 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 96.612 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 96.544- 0.5% 10-dma envelope
The primary trend direction in Aussie 3yr futures remains down and current short-term gains are considered corrective. A primary bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs remains intact and moving average studies are also pointing south. A resumption of weakness would open 96.612 - the 3.0% lower Bollinger Band as well as 96.544, the lower band of a MA envelope. Key short-term resistance is at 97.530, the Mar 31 high.
STIR FUTURES: Fed Hike Pricing To Year-End Near Post-FOMC Lows
- Fed Funds implied hikes keep near lows following earlier weak US data, just about fully pricing the 2x50bp guidance (cumulative 100bps for July) but sliding thereafter with 134bps for Sep (-6bps from yesterday) and 183bps to year-end (-12bps from yesterday) for the close to post-FOMC lows.
- The composite PMI first came in softer as both manufacturing activity softened per the regional Fed surveys (with further evidence in the subsequent Richmond index) and service activity softening in similar moves to those in European surveys earlier, before new home sales slumped.
- Fedspeak: Powell’s remarks were an non-event with attention now turning to Brainard’s commencement address tomorrow before the FOMC minutes.
Source: Bloomberg
