CBRT: Barclays: Sees Rates Unchanged Throughout 2022
Jun-22 14:23
- Despite ongoing pressure on the TRY and deteriorating inflation, we do not expect the CBT to change its stance.
- Although we keep our policy rate forecast unchanged at 14% for the rest of this year, there is a high a non-negligible risk of a big rate hike in Q4 22, as the energy bill is likely to exert significant pressure on foreign reserves in winter months.
- If this risk materializes, we would expect the CBT to deliver a big front-loaded hike.
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BONDS: EGB/Gilt - Gilt underperforms
May-23 14:15
- Another wide range session for EGBs and Bund, and contracts have mostly seen Yield rise following ECB Lagarde's comment during the European morning session setting off the tone.
- EGBs and Bund have found some demand this afternoon paring some of this morning's losses, but remains in the red.
- Peripheral spreads are tighter, with Italy in the lead, by 5.8bps, and the BTP/Bund spread trade under the 200.00bps mark at the time of typing.
- Gilt is underperforming Bund, pushing the Gilt/Bund spread 3.1bps wider, at 97.7bps.
- Looking ahead, ECB Villeroy and Fed Bostic are the scheduled speakers left for the session.
- Gilt futures are down -0.72 today at 118.16 with 10y yields up 6.1bp at 1.953% and 2y yields up 5.2bp at 1.546%.
- Bund futures are down -0.44 today at 153.49 with 10y Bund yields up 3.0bp at 0.971% and Schatz yields up 4.5bp at 0.372%.
- BTP futures are down -0.03 today at 128.34 with 10y yields down -2.7bp at 2.969% and 2y yields down -2.6bp at 0.949%.
- OAT futures are down -0.39 today at 145.76 with 10y yields up 2.8bp at 1.496% and 2y yields up 3.4bp at 0.270%.
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May-23 14:01
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STIR: SOFR Put Fly
May-23 13:44
- +10,000 SFRU2 97.43/97.56/97.68 put flys, 2.25 from 0922-0924ET
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