USDCAD TECHS: Strong Bullish Reversal Extends
- RES 4: 1.3113 High Nov 23 2020
- RES 3: 1.3077 High May 16 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.2982 High May 16
- RES 1: 1.2975 High June 14
- PRICE: 1.2947 @ 07:24 BST Jun 15
- SUP 1: 1.2866/2741 Low Jun 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.2518 Low Jun 8 and key support
- SUP 3: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
- SUP 4: 1.2403 Low Apr 5 and key support
USDCAD has continued to climb this week and the move higher has cemented the recent short-term reversal. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a break of 1.2945, 76.4% of the bear leg between May 12 - Jun 8. The breach reinforces a bullish theme and signals potential for a climb towards key resistance at 1.3077, the May 16 high. Initial firm support is at 1.2741, the 20-day EMA.
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BUNDS: Focus on CB speakers to start the week
- Bund remains underpinned overnight, taking its cue from US Treasuries, after the Chinese data miss.
- Volumes were subdued overnight for Germany, but a fairly busier session for the US.
- Initial resistance for Bund, moves down to 154.38.
- Support is seen at 154.61 (did print a 154.59 low overnight).
- Very little in terms of market moving data to start the week.
- This morning sees EU Commission Economic forecasts, but more focus on speakers.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Villeroy, Panetta, Lane, Fed Williams, BoE Bailey, Ramsden, Haskel, Saunders answer questions from the Treasury Committee.
USDCAD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: 1.3177 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.3173 High Nov 13 2020
- RES 2: 1.3091 High Nov 24 2020
- RES 1: 1.3077 High May 12
- PRICE: 1.2966 @ 07:04 BST May 16
- SUP 1: 1.2842/2814 20-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 2: 1.2745/14 50-day EMA / Low May 5 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2568 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 1.2459 Low Apr 21
USDCAD remains below last week’s high of 1.3077. A pullback is considered corrective and the outlook is bullish. Recent gains resulted in a breach of 1.2914, May 2 high, and key resistance at 1.2964, the Dec 20 2021 high. The break of the latter marks an important M/T bullish development and reinforces the positive outlook. This has opened 1.3177 next, the upper band of a MA envelope. Initial support is at 1.2914. Key support is at 1.2714, Apr 29 low.
AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bearish Tone
- RES 4: 0.7266 High May 4/5 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.7219 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.7135 Low May 6
- RES 1: 0.6953/7054 High May 12 / High May 11 and key resistance
- PRICE: 0.6886 @ 06:55 BST May 16
- SUP 1: 0.6829 Low May 12
- SUP 2: 0.6805 Low Jun 22 2020
- SUP 3: 0.6784 0.764 proj of the Apr 5 - May 2 - 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6759 50.0% retracement of the Mar ‘20 - Feb ‘21 upleg
AUDUSD maintains a bearish tone having resumed its downtrend last week. The move lower marked an extension of the reversal last week from 0.7266, the May 4/5 high. Moving average studies are in bear mode condition, highlighting current sentiment. Support at 0.6968, the Jan 28 low and a bear trigger, has been breached. This opens 0.6805 next, the Jun 22 2020 low. Initial firm resistance is at last Wednesday’s high of 0.7054.
