US: MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – US Daily
Apr-27 12:14
- The House is expected to vote on legislation this week to revive the WW2 lend-lease program to expedite the transfer of aid to Ukraine.
- House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) met yesterday with a bill to give the FTC more oversight over oil companies is the primary focus of discussions.
- US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday that he will soon unveil a new national security strategy document to combat ‘the emergence of China as a great power’.
- More including US Defence Secretary Austin’s meeting with military officials from over 40 nations here: https://marketnews.com/-2657222533
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US EURODLR FUTURES: Reds Continue To Lead The Way
Mar-28 12:06
- Eurodollars have retraced around half of the move seen overnight on the two-stage Shanghai lockdown.
- They are still led lower on the day by the red pack, currently down as much as 6 ticks yet the moves are dwarfed by the recent shifts to an aggressively steeper curve (H3 53bp higher than after the Mar FOMC).
- Implied yields continue to peak in M3, having been pulled forward a quarter in early last week, and with similar inversion thereafter with just over 25bps of cuts priced to the M4 contract and then a further 20bps in the year after that.
- Only second tier data today and with the next Fedspeak coming tomorrow with Harker (2023 voter) before George (2022) on Wed along with repeat appearances from Barkin and Bostic.
BOE: Bailey asked if implied rate path is appropriate: "It's complicated"
Mar-28 11:32
Bailey asked if the current implied rate path is appropriate. Bailey largely avoiding the question and saying "it's complicated". Notes that vacancy to unemployment rate is so high, they can't see it going another way. But then there is a big shock coming down the line. The degree of which we get second round effects determines what the Bank does or doesn't have to do. Notes again its a very big trade-off situation which is why the forward guidance language is so cautious, because it is so uncertain.
EQUITIES: Futures Point to a Positive Open, Pressuring Vols Further
Mar-28 11:24
- US equities hitting the best levels of the day headed through to the NY crossover, with the e-mini S&P touching 4544.25 and clearing the 100-dma at 4540.00 in the process. Moves higher open next resistance at 4585, the mid-February high.
- Moves come amid notable pre-market gains for Tesla (shares up 6% pre-market as board looks to move ahead with a stock split) and as markets watch the reconvening of Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Turkey - due to begin tomorrow.
- VIX futures are offered in response to modest stock futures gains, with last week's lows under pressure - a further 2.5 point decline for the index would erase the entirety of the Ukraine crisis-inspired rally posted since early February.
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