RUSSIA: Gazprom Halts Gas Supply to Poland, Bulgaria Due to Non-Payment in RUB
- EUROPEAN GAS JUMPS 24% AS RUSSIA CUTS OFF POLAND, BULGARIA
- GAZPROM STOPS GAS SUPPLY TO POLAND, BULGARIA ON NON-PAYMENT
- GAZPROM: POLAND, BULGARIA DIDN'T PAY IN RUBLES FOR APRIL GAS
- GAZPROM: GAS FLOW TO BE HALTED UNTIL REQUIRED PAYMENTS ARE MADE
- TRANSIT FLOW VIA POLAND, BULGARIA TO BE REDUCED IF GAS OFFTAKEN
- BULGARIA IS YET TO CONFIRM PHYSICAL GAS SUPPLY HALT: MINISTER
- BULGARIA HAS SECURED UNINTERRUPTED GAS SUPPLIES, MINISTER SAYS
- BULGARIA HASN'T VIOLATED GAZPROM CONTRACTS: MINISTER
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GBP: Goldman Sachs: Underperformance Ahead
Goldman Sachs note that “sterling is sitting close to recent highs both against the Euro and on a trade-weighted basis, but we think the negatives are starting to pile up. While in many ways the Bank of England was ahead of the crowd shifting towards removing accommodation last fall, more recently the BoE’s tightening plans are hardly leading the way. At the same time, the Spring Statement focused on tax cuts and was more back-loaded than we had expected, leading our economists to trim their forecast for growth this year and next. In addition, building expectations for more rapid rate hikes from the Fed and the ongoing crisis in Europe seems somewhat inconsistent with the relative resilience in riskier assets, so we see room for tactical caution and Sterling tends to underperform in a risk-off environment. Should the growth outlook improve, we prefer short EUR/SEK over short EUR/GBP given the continued strong inflation data in Sweden which we think is undermining the Riksbank’s dovish arguments and should pave the way for a more complete change in tone, unlike in the UK where expectations for the next few meetings set a high bar for the BoE to deliver.”
USDCAD TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.2924 High Dec 22
- RES 3: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2778 High Mar 16
- RES 1: 1.2553/2651 High Mar 25 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2498 @ 07:01 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.2466 Low Mar 25
- SUP 2: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
- SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021
USDCAD traded to a new cycle low Friday. Last week’s move lower and most recently, a break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally, reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on the next key support at 1.2451, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2651, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease current bearish pressure.
AUDUSD TECHS: Holding Onto Recent Gains
- RES 4: 0.7617 High Jun 25
- RES 3: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
- RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.7534/37 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Mar 25
- PRICE: 0.7516 @ 06:55 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.7450/7376 Low Mar 23 / Low Mar 22
- SUP 2: 0.7360 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.7281 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
AUDUSD maintains a bullish tone and continues to trade near its recent peak, YTD high and multi-month highs. Last week’s important technical break was the move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that began Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.
