FRANCE: Focus Turns To Legislative Election Following Comfortable Macron Win
Following the relatively comfortable win for President Emmanuel Macron in the 24 April presidential run-off, focus will now turn to the country's legislative elections, scheduled to take place on 12 and 19 June.
- Elections will take place over two rounds to decide on the 577 members of the National Assembly, the lower chamber of the French Parliament.
- The Republique En Marche (LREM) movement of President Macron and its allies currently hold a majority with 346 of the 577 seats. The two-round electoral system has a similar impact in legislative elections as it does at the presidential level, often keeping the number of far-left or far-right assembly members at a much lower level than their respective vote shares might suggest (Marine Le Pen's Front National won 13% of the first round vote and 9% of the final round vote but emerged with just eight seats in 2017).
- In polling carried out in the days ahead of the presidential second round, voters seemed to support a greater present for the far-left and far-right in the National Assembly, with 39% and 38% of respondents wanting to see a stronger La France Insoumise (the party of leftist Jean-Luc Melenchon) and Rassembelement National (of Marine Le Pen) respectively (see chart below).
- Respondents are most negative towards the two main historic parties of France, the centre-left Socialists and centre-right Les Republicains. Forty-seven per cent of respondents want to see both parties have a weaker presence in the National Assembly after the elections.
- Should be noted that the public's opinons on parties often change following the second-round presidential election. Could provide a boost to Macron's LREM's prospects of maintaining a majority.
Source: Ipsos-Sopra Steria. 4,000 respondents, 21-23 April. LFI-La France Insoumise, PCF-Communist Party of France, EELV-European Ecology-The Greens, PS-Socialist Party, LREM-La Republique En Marche, LR-Les Republicains, RN-Rassembelement National, REC-Reconquest.
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USDCAD TECHS: Eyeing Key Support
- RES 4: 1.2924 High Dec 22
- RES 3: 1.2871/2901 High Mar 15 / High Mar 8 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.2778 High Mar 16
- RES 1: 1.2669 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2500 @ 16:35 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 1.2498/99 Low Mar 25 / Jan 21
- SUP 2: 1.2475 2.0% Lower Bollinger Band
- SUP 3: 1.2454 Low Jan 19 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
USDCAD traded to a new cycle low Friday. This week’s move lower and most recently, a break of 1.2552, the 76.4% retracement of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally, reinforces a bearish theme and signals scope for an extension lower. The focus is on the Jan 21 low of 1.2499 and 1.2451, the Jan 19 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2669, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease current bearish pressure.
US: Public Opinion Of US Leaders Remains Low
The daily favourability ratings of US political leaders continues to reflect a mistrust of politicians amongst voters.
- the Real Clear Politics favourability rating also provides some context to President Biden's low approval rating. Both Republican and Democrat leaders continue to have low approval.
- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has the lowest rating with -34 approval. This reflects his association with the GOP establishment opposed by former president Donald Trump.
- Trump is the political 'leader' with the highest favourability with -6.1 but he is only marginally ahead of President Biden who sits at -9.2.
Favourability Ratings: US political Leaders Real Clear Politics
AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh YTD High
- RES 4: 0.7599 High Jul 6 2021
- RES 3: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.7537 High Mar 25
- RES 1: 0.7533 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 0.7506 @ 16:33 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 0.7450/7376 Low Mar 23 / Low Mar 22
- SUP 2: 0.7343 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.7271 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
AUDUSD strengthened further early Friday and continues to deliver new YTD and multi-month highs. This week’s important technical break has been the move above 0.7441, the Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This reinforces the current bull cycle that started Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.
