EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Fig 1: South Korea Tsy 2-10 Curve

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
TRADE (BBC): “The UK has been temporarily spared from US President Donald Trump's executive order doubling steel and aluminium tariffs from 25% to 50%. The order depends on the UK and US tariff pact signed in May, which would axe steel and aluminium tariffs but has yet to come into force, meaning UK steel exporters will face tariffs until then and could face the 50% tariff if the pact falters.”
EU
EU/CHINA (MNI BRIEF): The European Chamber of Commerce in China supports the end goal of the EU’s recent measure to restrict Chinese medical device manufacturers from public procurement tenders, aimed at ensuring reciprocal market access, a statement from the chamber on Wednesday said.
GERMANY (FT/BBG): " The tax incentives, which include deductions for new equipment and new electric vehicles, will cost about €46b in total by 2029, the Financial Times reports citing government estimates it had seen."
EU (POLITICO): “Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Tuesday she is ready to abandon her country's traditionally thrifty stance on the EU budget in the face of the threat posed by Russia.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “A Ukrainian delegation is set to brief U.S. senators Wednesday as lawmakers weigh a sweeping sanctions bill targeting Russia and its biggest energy customers, China and India.”
FRANCE (ECONOMIST): “In March the French leader of the hard-right National Rally (RN) party was ruled ineligible to run for elected office for five years and stripped of her seat as a departmental councillor in the Pas-de-Calais, in northern France. Ms Le Pen appealed against both decisions; on Wednesday a court in Lille will decide whether to uphold the local ban.”
EURO (ECONOMIST): “On Wednesday the European Commission and European Central Bank are expected to confirm that Bulgaria can adopt the euro. The currency would replace the Bulgarian lev, probably from the start of next year.”
US
TARIFFS (BBG): “ President Donald Trump signed a directive on Tuesday raising steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% from 25% starting on June 4, following through on a pledge to boost import taxes to help domestic manufacturers.”
FISCAL (BBG): "Donald Trump ally Elon Musk lambasted the president’s signature tax bill as a budget-busting “abomination” as Republican fiscal hawks stepped up criticism of the massive fiscal package."
FED (MNI): The Federal Reserve's policymaking framework should move away from its 2020 focus on a low-rates, low-inflation environment and strategies created to deal with that, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Tuesday.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Federal Reserve officials must remain open to various outcomes for the direction of interest rates including a hike in response to higher inflation as tariffs sink in, Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.
FED (MNI BRIEF): Whether U.S. interest rates will fall this year depends on how trade policy and data evolve over the next three months, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday.
FED (MNI): The U.S. economy faces heightened risks of both higher inflation and a weaker job market, and the current level of interest rates leaves the Federal Reserve in a good place to respond if either threat materializes, Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Tuesday.
NATO (POLITICO): “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will not attend a Wednesday meeting of 50 defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels that has been critical to coordinating military aid for Ukraine, marking the first time in three years a Pentagon chief has skipped the event.”
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Vancouver home sales so far this year are the lowest in a decade outside of the pandemic, and higher inventories are pushing prices down in what had been one of Canada's most overheated markets.
SOUTH KOREA (BBG): “South Korea’s opposition candidate Lee Jae-myung was elected president in a race that was largely a verdict on ousted leader Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched attempt to revive martial law after decades of democratic rule.”
AUSTRALIA (MNI BRIEF): Australia’s GDP rose 0.2% in the March quarter, 20 basis points lower than expected, and 1.3% y/y, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics data released Wednesday. GDP per hour worked, a key productivity measure, fell 1% y/y, while real unit labour costs grew 2.6%. The RBA expects productivity growth to reach 0.9% by the December quarter.
CHINA
CHINA/US (BBG): “Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his first meeting with new US Ambassador David Perdue to complain about recent actions by Washington, underscoring a downturn in relations between the world’s two biggest economies.”
BANKING (21st CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD): “Small and medium-sized banks are expected to accelerate merger and reorganisation activity aimed at improving quality, with the number of banking institutions likely to drop to 3,000 from a peak of 4,600, 21st Century Business Herald reported, citing analysts.”
FISCAL (YICAI): “Zhejiang province has issued CNY1.6 billion of special bonds specifically for purchasing existing commercial housing, Yicai news agency has reported. Industry insiders said although the value amounted to only 3% of the special bonds issued by the province in total, the move had significant policy implications and the proportion may rise as related projects improve.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY0.6 Bln via OMO Wednesday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY214.9 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY0.6 billion after offsetting the maturities of CNY215.5 billion today, according to Wind Information.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1886 Weds; +0.74% Y/Y
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate higher at 7.1886 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1869 set on Tuesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2005 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP +0.2% Q/Q; EST. 0.4%; Q4 0.6%
AUSTRALIA Q1 GDP +1.3% Y/Y; EST. 1.5%; Q4 1.3%
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL MAY SERVICES PMI 50.6; PRE. 50.5; APR. 51
AUSTRALIA S&P GLOBAL MAY COMPOSITE PMI 50.5; PRE. 50.6; APR. 51
SOUTH KOREA MAY CONSUMER PRICES -0.1% M/M; EST. +0.1%; APR. +0.1%
SOUTH KOREA MAY CONSUMER PRICES +1.9% Y/Y; EST. +2.1%; APR. +2.1%
SOUTH KOREA MAY CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY +2.0% Y/Y; EST. +2.0%; APR. +2.1%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK MAY SERVICES PMI 51.0; PRE. 50.8; APR. 52.4
JAPAN JIBUN BANK JAPAN MAY COMPOSITE PMI 50.2; PRE. 49.8; APR. 51.2
MARKETS
US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields In The Long-End A Little Lower
The TYU5 range has been 110-15 to 110-18+ during the Asia-Pacific session. It last changed hands at 110-17, up 0-02 from the previous close.
Data/Events: ADP, S&P Services PMI, ISM Services Index, Fed Beige Book
Fig 1: Fed Funds Effective rate vs Nominal GDP Growth

Source - Jens Nordvig/Bloomberg
JGBS: Bear-Steepener, Tomorrow's 30Y Supply In Focus
JGB futures are holding weaker, -16 compared to settlement levels, on a data-light local session.
AUSSIE BONDS: Flat Despite Weak Q1 GDP, Q2 GDP Bounce Back Likely
ACGBs (YM flat & XM +0.5) are little changed after today's Q1 GDP release.
BONDS: Closed Richer & On Best Levels, Outperforms $-Bloc
NZGBs closed at bests, with benchmark yields 5-6bps lower, on a data-light local session.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - Quiet Session
The BBDXY has had a range of 1211.72 - 1214.14 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1214. "NATO is pushing European members to expand ground-based air-defense capabilities fivefold in response to the threat of Russian aggression, people familiar said. Trump will attend the alliance’s summit in The Hague later this month, the White House said.”(BBG)
Data/Events : Spain Industrial Production & Services PMI, Italy Serv PMI, France Serv PMI, Germ Serv PMI, EC Serv PMI
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
AUD: Asia Wrap - Tries Lower On GDP Miss But Demand Found Again
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6454 - 0.6480 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6460. The AUD tried lower on the GDP missing lower, but the bids that were around overnight again provided support towards the 0.6450 area.
AUD/JPY - Today's range 92.83 - 93.17, it is trading currently around 93.000. Range looks 92.00 - 94.00 for now, a sustained break sub 91.50/92.00 will bring focus back to towards the lows again.
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
JPY: Asia Wrap - Quiet session trading Around 144.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.28 - 143.67, Asia is currently trading around 144.15. USD/JPY had a brief spike going into the Japanese Fix but drifted back off that high for the rest of our session before finding a bid late on.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.50($698m), 145.00($629m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 140.00($2b June 5), 142.00($1.17b June 5), 148.00($1.21b June 5).
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
NZD: Asia Wrap - Quiet Session As NZD Tries To Hold 0.6000
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5994 - 0.6014 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6000. The NZD has found some demand just below the 0.6000 area as the US stock market pushed higher again overnight.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0752 - 1.0784, currently trading 1.0765. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the market will have been looking for a more dovish tone from the RBNZ last week and AUD/NZD could now see supply on bounces. The sell zone is back towards 1.0800/25 with the first target being around 1.0650.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
ASIA STOCKS: Major Bourses Up Strongly
The better than expected US labour market data dampened fears of an immediate economic downturn and gave stocks in Asia a boost today. This added to the election result in South Korea which is widely tipped to be good for stocks and growth with various policies to be implemented that are viewed as pro-stocks and an expected new stimulus package.
OIL: Canadian Reopening After Fires Drives Oil Lower, US Steel Tariffs Rise
Oil prices are lower after rising over 4% in the last two days as US 50% steel and aluminium tariffs come into effect. Rain is also helping to bring fires in Canada’s oil sands region under control. WTI is down 0.4% to $63.13/bbl, close to the intraday low, but still above the 5-day EMA at $62.47. Brent is 0.4% lower at $65.36/bbl, just above resistance at $65.28. The USD index is slightly higher.
Gold Off Intraday High, Increased US Steel Tariffs Introduced
Gold prices are slightly higher today as US 50% steel and aluminium tariffs come into effect. They fell 0.8% on Tuesday. It remains a safe haven asset as trade uncertainty continues. Bullion is 0.1% higher at $3355.7/oz after a high of $3372.67 which followed a low of $3346.57, trading between initial resistance and support. The USD index is up slightly.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 04/06/2025 | 0700/0900 | ** | Industrial Production | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0715/0915 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0745/0945 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0750/0950 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0755/0955 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | ** | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | *** | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/06/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | Gilt Outright Auction Result | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1100/0700 | ** | MBA Weekly Applications Index | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1215/0815 | *** | ADP Employment Report | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | Atlanta Fed's Raphael Bostic | ||
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | Bank of Canada Policy Decision | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global Services Index (final) | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1345/0945 | *** | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1400/1000 | *** | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | ** | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks | |
| 04/06/2025 | 1430/1030 | BOC press conference | ||
| 04/06/2025 | 1800/1400 | Fed Beige Book | ||
| 05/06/2025 | - | European Central Bank Meeting | ||
| 05/06/2025 | 2330/0830 | ** | average wages (p) | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0130/1130 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Services PMI | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0145/0945 | ** | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0545/0745 | ** | Unemployment | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | ** | Manufacturing Orders | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0600/0800 | *** | Flash Inflation Report | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0730/0930 | ** | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0745/0845 | BOE's Greene Opening Remarks at Econdat Conference 2025 | ||
| 05/06/2025 | 0800/1000 | * | Retail Sales | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | Decision Maker Panel data | ||
| 05/06/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI | |
| 05/06/2025 | 0900/1100 | ** | PPI | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Deposit Rate | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Main Refi Rate | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1215/1415 | *** | ECB Marginal Lending Rate | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | *** | Jobless Claims | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | WASDE Weekly Import/Export | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Non-Farm Productivity (f) | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1230/0830 | ** | Trade Balance | |
| 05/06/2025 | 1245/1445 | ECB Press Conference |