PLN: Zloty Fluctuates Ahead Of NBP Announcement
Sep-06 10:23
EUR/PLN moved through the 4.5000 mark and Jul 6 high of 4.5040 before trimming those initial gains. The rate last changes hands at 4.4993, 67 pips above neutral levels. A sustained break above 4.5040 would signal the scope for continued short-term recovery.
- USD/PLN deals at 4.1895, little changed on the day, after bulls failed to force a durable break above the 4.2000 figure. Should they succeed, they could take aim at 4.2644, which capped gains on May 31.
- PLN/CZK sits at 5.3819, down 20 pips on the day. The initial layer of support is provided by Aug 18 low of 5.3558. Meanwhile, PLN/HUF trades at 86.32, marginally higher on the day, with bulls looking for gains past Aug 21 high of 87.07.
- POLGBs have unwound their initial losses, with spillover from core markets lending some support. The yield curve runs slightly steeper as we type.
- The focus turns to the NBP monetary policy decision, which will be announced later today, ahead of Governor Glapinski's presser tomorrow. Click here to see our preview.
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NOK: RBC's Opt for Short EUR/NOK On Potential for Inflation Surprise
Aug-07 10:23
RBC see their trade of the week as short EUR/NOK at spot, targeting 10.90 and a stop/loss just above Friday's high at 11.2460.
- They write that M/M gains of >1% in this week's Norway CPI are not out of the question, extending the streak of upside surprises.
- They add that EUR/NOK is testing important support at the 200dma while crude is also poised to break higher. A break of both could see EUR/NOK gather momentum to the downside.
STIR: Fed Implied Rates Buoyed By Bowman
Aug-07 10:22
- Fed Funds implied rates have reversed most of Friday’s payrolls-related drop for Sept and Nov meetings and unwound up to half of the much larger drop further into 2024, buoyed by a hawkish Bowman (voter) over the weekend and with limited impact from a characteristically dovish NY Fed’s Williams (voter) earlier today.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +4bp Sep (+1bp from Fri close), +9bp Nov to 5.42% terminal (+2bp).
- Cuts from Nov terminal: 3bp to Dec’23 (from 4bp), 60bp to Jun’24 (from 65bp) and 131bp to Dec’24 (from 139bp).
- Bowman expects additional rate “increases” whilst Williams sees the need to hike further as “an open question”. Bowman speaks again along with Bostic at a Fed Listens event at 0830ET. Recall Bostic has already spoken after Friday’s payrolls data, noting it was largely as expected and having previously not seen the need for a Sept hike and with rate cuts not starting until 2H24 at the earliest.
LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar: Fed Speak, Tsy Bill Sales, Consumer Credit
Aug-07 10:18
Slow start to the new week, main focus on Thursday's CPI
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Aug-7 0830 Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic, Fed Gov Bowman remarks at Fed Listens virtual event
- Aug-7 1130 US Tsy $67B 13W, $60B 26W bill auctions
- Aug-7 1500 Consumer Credit ($7.24B, $13.55B)
- Aug-8 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (91.0, 90.5)
- Aug-8 0815 Philly Fed Harker economic outlook, text, Q&A
- Aug-8 0830 Trade Balance (-$69.0B, -$65.0B)
- Aug-8 1000 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM (-0.2%, -0.1%)
- Aug-8 1000 Wholesale Inventories MoM (-0.3%, -0.3%)
- Aug-8 1130 US Tsy $55B 42D CMB, $40B 52W bill auctions
- Aug-8 1300 US Tsy $42B 3Y Note auction (91282CHU8)
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