PLN: Zloty Falls Behind EMEA Peers, CE3 FX Struggle
Sep-24 08:24
EUR/PLN trades +55 pips at 4.2648 as CE3 FX underperform in the EMEA basket, with the zloty sitting at the bottom of the scoreboard. Technically, bulls still look for an attack on Apr 16/Dec 25 highs of 4.3102/4.3114, while bears keep an eye on May 15 low of 4.2230.
- Poland reopened border crossings with Belarus, a key chokehold on the overland route from China to the EU, after Minsk wrapped up its joint military exercises with Russia.
- Polish officials joined their NATO colleagues in warning Russia against repeated incursions into the bloc's airspace, with US President Trump unexpectedly endorsing these comments.
- An NBP survey showed that professional forecasters expect inflation to average at +2.9% Y/Y next year and moderate to +2.7% in 2027. The baseline forecast for this year is +3.7% Y/Y.
- POLGB curve runs a tad steeper; the Finance Ministry holds an auction for PLN6bn-11bn worth of debt today.
- The WIG Index has shed 0.4%; WIG20 sits 1% lower on the day.
- The local data docket is empty today.
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FOREX: Limited moves in G10 FX ahead of the IFO
Aug-25 07:48
- There is still very limited movement on this UK bank holiday Monday with the biggest mover in the G10 space AUDJPY (versus the USD the all G10 currencies are within 0.3% of Friday's close).
- The main scheduled event of the day will be the release of the German IFO survey at 9:00BST while we will hear from the Fed's Logan but not until 20:15BST (and it is unclear whether she will speak on monetary policy).
- It will be the second half of the week that we will see the main economic releases of the week with the second estimate of US Q2 GDP due Thursday. Friday will be a very busy data day with Tokyo CPI and flash HICP releases from France, Spain, Italy and Germany as well as July PCE from the US and Q2 GDP from Canada.
- Outside of G10 FX, USDCNH has seen more notable moves with the USDCNY fixing at the lowest level since early November and our Asia team noting that CNH was also helped by China property related equities have been buoyed on headlines of easing Shanghai home buying curbs. See our technical analysts' views above as the cross approaches key support.
