UKRAINE: Zelenskyy-Ukraine Facing Choice: Lose Dignity Or Risk Losing Key Ally

Nov-21 15:01

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posts a video statement online, with the US seemingly pushing hard for Ukraine to agree to the 28-point peace plan framework. Zelenskyy says, "This is one of the most difficult moments in our history. Ukraine faces a crucial decision: lose its dignity or risk losing a key partner." Says he will not betray Ukraine's national interest. 

  • Zelenskyy: "Either [we accept the] difficult 28 points, or an extremely difficult winter, the most difficult, and further risks. A life without freedom, dignity, or justice, and having to believe someone who has already attacked us twice. Europe is with us, Europe was with us, and we hope Europe will be with us."
  • Zelenskyy says, "We will seek solutions constructively with the United States. I will present arguments, persuade, and propose alternatives, but we will not give the enemy reasons to say that it is Ukraine that does not want peace."
  • Amid the ongoing corruption scandal plaguing his administration, Zelenskyy urges Ukrainians to maintain unity, and urges parliament and the government to "work together for the sake of Ukraine."
  • Says that "next week will be very difficult for Ukraine", and he "expects a lot of political pressure in the coming days". Zelenskyy's language would seem to back up perceptions that the US is putting significant weight on the 28-point plan and is threatening withdrawal of all support if Kyiv does not sign up to the plan. 

Historical bullets

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: GM Financial, Dominican Republic on Tap

Oct-22 14:48
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 10/22 $1.5B #Alberta 10Y SOFR+81
  • 10/22 $1B Rep of Korea WNG 5Y +19a
  • 10/22 $Benchmark GM Financial 3Y +110a
  • 10/22 $Benchmark Dominican Republic 10Y 6.25%a
  • 10/22 $Benchmark Pershing Square 7Y investor calls

SEK: Risk In EURSEK Remains Tilted To The Downside

Oct-22 14:40
  • Risk in EURSEK remains tilted to the downside, with spot hovering just above support at 10.9036, the Sep 15 low. Clearance of this level would expose the April 4 low at 10.7941. Spot is on track for a sixth consecutive close lower, currently -0.25% today. 
  • It’s been another session with relatively few domestic catalysts. Riksbank Deputy Governor Jansson noted that it is reasonable to look through the upcoming temporary reduction in food VAT. However, the Board will “monitor how households' and companies' expectations and behaviour are affected, so that fluctuations in inflation that are temporary to begin with do not become more permanent."
  • This isn’t a surprising view to hold. We continue to believe that the policy rate will remain at 1.75% for some to come, with the risk of a hike to 2.00% somewhat greater than the risk of another cut.
  • Today’s SEK strength comes despite a fairly subdued session for European equity futures. This week’s SEK outperformance may therefore reflect increased sympathy for domestically-focused narratives (i.e growth tailwinds from accommodative monetary policy and an expansionary 2026 budget). 
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GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: CORRECTION: Auction Size

Oct-22 14:35

The DMO has announced a GBP3.75bln, not GBP4.75bln auction size for the new 4.125% Mar-33 Gilt next Wednesday.