UKRAINE: Zelenskyy-Hoping For Contact w/US As Soon As Kremlin Meeting Ends
Speaking in the Irish capital, Dublin, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claims that there is a "better chance now than ever to end the war". With US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, having arrived at the Kremlin a short time ago for talks with President Vladimir Putin, Zelenskyy says that he expects communication from the US team "straight away" after their meeting with the Russians.
- Adds that he hopes to meet with representatives from the US as soon as possible after the Kremlin talks. Adds that he is ready to meet with Trump at any point, and that "everything depends" on the success of the Moscow talks.
- Regarding the various proposals to end the conflict (the Russian-favouring 28-point plan, and the plan that Ukraine hashed out with US officials), Zelenskyy says "there will be no easy decisions to end the war", and that "there should be no game behind Ukraine's back". Zelenskyy claims that the rough deal reached in Geneva was further refined into a 20-point plan: "There are over 20 points that were developed in Geneva that were worked upon additionally and finalised in Florida. Some things still need to be worked out".
- Zelenskyy says sanctions on Russia "must remain in place as long as the Russian occupation and the abuse of Ukrainians continues," and that it is "high time" for frozen Russian assets held in the EU to be used to fund Ukraine (see UKRAINE: FT-ECB Will Not Provide Backstop For EUR140bln 'Reparations Loan').
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Returns Lower
- RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
- RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
- PRICE: 95.670 @ 16:16 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3
- SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-expected Australian inflation. This returned prices lower despite nascent signs of a technical recovery as recently as last week. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg.
AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Struck by Strong CPI
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.375 @ 16:13 GMT Oct 31
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Having bounced well on the back of the mild US CPI print, Aussie 3-yr futures reversed course Wednesday on strong domestic inflation data containing RBA cut pricing through 2026. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 96.280 as the next major support.
FED: Gov Waller: Still Advocating For A December Rate Cut
Gov Waller, one of the FOMC's more prominent doves, makes clear in an appearance on Fox Business that he supports a follow-up rate cut in December. He makes reference to Chair Powell's press conference comment that the Fed could skip a cut at the December meeting due in part to a lack of official government data during the federal shutdown (Powell: “what do you do if you are driving in the fog? You slow down").
- Waller says today: "Right now, we know that the labor market has been weak... We know inflation is going to come back down. Inflation expectations are anchored, and in that world, the standard of central bank wisdom is to look through it and proceed with worrying about the labor market. So in my view, we should just look at what the data is telling us and proceed on policy that way.... So this is why I'm still advocating that we cut policy rates in December, because that's what all the data is telling me to do. The fog might tell you to slow down. It doesn't tell you to pull over to the side of the road. You still have to go. You may want to be careful, but it doesn't mean to stop, and ... the right thing to do with policy is to continue cutting."
- This is of particular interest since he appeared to suggest he would have a more cautious outlook on further easing after cutting in October.
