BTP TECHS: (Z5) Trend Signals Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.92 @ Close Nov 13
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish and short-term weakness is considered corrective - for now. The move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern and this reinforces a bull theme. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.
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GILT TECHS: (Z5) Impulsive Rally Strengthens A Bull Theme
- RES 4: 93.30 1.236 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 3: 93.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 92.72 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 26 price swing
- RES 1: 92.36 Intraday high
- PRICE: 92.31 @ 08:10 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 91.60/90.90 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 90.26/89.94 Low Sep 26 / 76.4% of the Sep 3 - 11 correction
- SUP 3: 89.36 Low Sep 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 89.00 Round number support
A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains intact following recent strong impulsive gains. Today’s extension higher from the open strengthens current conditions. The contract has recently cleared key resistance at 91.82, the Sep 24 high. The breach opens 92.72 next, a Fibonacci projection. Price needs to trade below support at 90.26, the Sep 26 low, to reinstate a bearish theme. Initial firm support lies at 90.90, the 20-day EMA.
USD: Westpac Recommend Tactical DXY Short
Westpac recommended a tactical short in the DXY overnight.
- The entry point was 98.85 & they would add more at 99.35, with a stop set at 99.65.
- They stress that they have relatively low conviction in the trade, “against the backdrop of a large and growing list of stories to process - unsettled politics and associated fiscal risks in Japan and France, escalating tensions in the bilateral U.S.-China economic relationship over rare earths, tariffs and shipping fees, and not least the ongoing U.S. government shutdown”.
- However, they point to “encouraging pockets of stability” as the driver of the recommendation.
- They highlight “French sovereign spreads have narrowed in recent days, while Japanese opposition parties are coalescing in ways that appear to undercut Takaichi’s chances of becoming PM”.
- They also provide some cross-market reasoning, suggesting that “more decisively, the recent run-up in DXY has left it expensive vs. 2- & 10- yield spreads”.
SILVER TECHS: Bull Wave Intact
- RES 4: $54.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $53.546 - High Oct 14
- RES 2: $52.821 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 14 high-low range
- RES 1: $52.520 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $52.515 @ 08:10 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: $49.677/47.233 - Low Oct 13 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $43.627 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $41.135 - Low Sep 17
- SUP 4: $40.404 - Low Sep 4
Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The metal traded to a fresh cycle high yesterday, however, price action was volatile and silver is off its latest high. Recent gains have resulted in a move above a major resistance area around the $49.00-$50.00 region. This marks a high point from Jan ‘80 and Apr ‘11 and $50.00 represents a key psychological level. A clear break of this zone strengthens a bull theme. Support to watch is $47.233, the 20-day EMA.
