AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (Z5) Strong Weekly Close
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 96.530 @ 15:45 GMT Oct 28
- SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)
- SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
- SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
Aussie 3-yr futures briefly bounced on the US CPI print keeping focus higher despite the break of support last week. Short-term resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, has been broken, with 96.780 is the next upside target. Clearance of this level puts markets at fresh multi-month highs. 96.280 marks next major support - but markets are some way off this mark now.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW600bn 91-Day Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.4 Trillion Won 2-Year Bonds
- Malaysia to Sell MYR5 Billion 2028 Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 182D Bills (PH0000060238)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.5Bln 89D Bills (PH0000060691)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000061137)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 1130GMT | 1830HKT | 2030AEDT | India Industrial Production YoY AUGUST |
source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
NZD: NZD/USD - Closes The Week Below 0.5800
The NZD/USD had a range overnight of 0.5754 - 0.5776, Asia is trading around 0.5775. US stocks found some support and the USD’s bout of strength stalled as the data on Friday came in as expected. The NZD broke through its pivotal 0.5800 support last week which should keep the pair under pressure heading into payrolls. The first sell zone would be between the 0.5850/0.5900 area. US Futures have opened slightly higher this morning, E-minis +0.10%, NQU5 +0.10%.
- Bloomberg - “New Zealand Dollar Worst Performing G10 Currency This Year. The New Zealand dollar has become the worst performing G10 currency in the year to date. It is up 3.18% against the U.S. dollar, trading at 0.58 to the U.S. currency.”
- MNI AU - Monthly Data May Shape OCR Expectations. This week will provide more information on how NZ’s recovery tracked in Q3. The higher frequency data have been the focus of the RBNZ for over a year and so should help shape expectations for the 8 October RBNZ decision where some are forecasting a 50bp rate cut following the very weak Q2 GDP print.
- "NZ AUG. FILLED JOBS RISE 0.2% M/M, NZ AUG. FILLED JOBS 2.346M" - BBG
- MNI AU - Labour Market Weak But Turning. August filled jobs rose 0.2% m/m after a downwardly revised flat July. This is the first increase in hiring since January and while the labour market appears to have stabilised conditions remain weak with filled jobs down 0.7% y/y. On a positive note, the August increase was across sectors with the good-producing industries the strongest.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5785(NZD904m Sept 30), 0.5875(NZD372m Sept 30) - BBG
- CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers continuing to rebuild their short positions in the NZD, -18421(Last -11933). The Leveraged community don’t seem as convinced and reduced their own shorts, -2850(Last -5327).
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
