SCHATZ TECHS: (Z5) Holding On To The Bulk Of Its Recent Gains

• RES 4: 1.3681 High Jul 4  
• RES 3: 1.3636 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - Aug1 downleg
• RES 2: 1.3595 High Aug 14 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: 1.3590 High Sep 9
• PRICE: 1.3540 @ 06:33 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 1.3465/3333 50-day EMA / Low Sep 3
• SUP 2: 1.3315 61.8% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 1.3249 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support      

GBPUSDis holding on to its gains since rallying off the Sep 3 low. The climb has retraced the steep sell-off on Sep 2 and highlights a stronger bullish development. This also suggests the corrective cycle between Aug 14 - Sep 3 is over. Sights are on resistance at 1.3595, the Aug 14 high and a bull trigger. A break would strengthen a bullish condition. Initial support to watch is 1.3465, the 50-day EMA. 

Market Summary: The Hang Seng led the way for the China bourses, up +1.19%, the CSI 300 up +0.22%, the Shanghai Comp +0.17% and the Shenzhen Comp +0.15% as news out shows domestic insurers allocation to equity has hit their highest in 3-years. The Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1062 Per USD; Estimate 7.1369 whilst the CGB 10-Yr is at 1.79%

• With some key onshore news suggesting that further monetary policy intervention is getting closer, today's CPI and PPI did little to dissuade that way of thinking.  CPI in August declined -0.4%, ahead of estimates of -0.2% and the biggest drop since February.  The fall in CPI highlights the risks to a slowing economy, despite story in Yicai yesterday claiming that their chief economist survey showing a growing confidence in the economic outlook.
  In 2025 there has been just two months of barely positive prints for CPI, one zero and the remainder all modestly negative to underscore the reality of a third successive year of deflationary pressures.  Whilst retail sales, industrial production and exports remain positive, it is clear that the pace of expansion has decreased.  Domestic demand has been weighed down for several years by the malaise in real estate which has seen a multi year decline in house prices.  China's August PPI declined by -2.9%, from -3.6% in July.  For PPI the story remains the same with the last positive print in September 2022.  (source MNI)
• US President Trump told EU officials that new tariffs are possible on China and India in attempts to push Putin to the negotiating table over Ukraine (source BBG)

• RES 4: 118.635 1.500 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing     
• RES 3: 118.561 1.382 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing  
• RES 2: 118.469 1.236 proj of the Aug 25 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing 
• RES 1: 118.400 High Sep 8 
• PRICE: 118.280 @ 06:10 BST Sep 10
• SUP 1: 117.920 Low Sep 4    
• SUP 2: 117.690 Low Sep 2    
• SUP 3: 117.630 Low Aug 25  and a key short-term support   
• SUP 4: 117.481 123.6% retracement projection of Aug 25 - 28 rally  

Bobl futures are holding on to the bulk of their recent gains. The contract has breached resistance at 118.260, the Aug 28 high. A breach of this level undermines the recent bearish theme and signals scope for a stronger recovery towards 118.469, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 117.920, the Sep 4 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal and instead expose 117.690, the Sep 2 low.