BTP TECHS: (Z5) Bull Flag Formation
- RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
- RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.55 @ Close Nov 12
- SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level
- SUP 2: 120.71 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10
- SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7
The trend set-up in BTP futures remains bullish. Recent weakness appears corrective and the move down since Oct 22 appears to be flag formation, a bullish continuation pattern. Note too the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high.
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 2: 1.4075 Bull channel top drawn from the Jul 23 low
- RES 1: 1.4059 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4055 @ 08:06 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.3928/3863 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3799 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s firm start reinforces current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3863, 50-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle Low
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6558 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6467 @ 07:59 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 0.6461 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
- SUP 4: 0.6357 Low May 12
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact and today's fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions. The recent breach of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg, signals scope for a deeper retracement towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6558, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
