US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bull Cycle Intact

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 09/22 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.19, -0.16)
• 09/22 0945 NY Fed Williams on monetary policy (no text, moderated Q&A)
• 09/22 1000 StL Fed Musalem on economy & policy, Brookings Inst (Q&A)
• 09/22 1130 US Tsy $82B 13W & $73B 26W bill auctions
• 09/22 1200 Cleveland Fed Hammack on banks & economy (livestreamed)
• 09/22 1200 Richmond Fed Barkin, audience Q&A
• 09/22 1200 Fed Gov Miran, Economic Club/NY, moderated Q&A
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI 

ERU6 98.125/98.25cs, bought for 3.75 in 5k (ref 98.02).

• Despite a brief flurry above 0.9400 in August, EURCHF has subsequently reverted to trade within a very familiar range between 0.93-94 that has been broadly respected since April. Since the June SNB meeting, the nominal and real effective exchange rates have continued to strengthen, albeit to a much lesser extent than in Q2 (i.e. March – June).
• USDCHF printed a cycle low of 0.7829 in the aftermath of the Fed, the lowest level since the removal of the peg in 2015, and this remains the immediate support level to note. CHFJPY has remained in its steady uptrend, printing fresh all-time highs at 187.11 on Friday.
• The SNB is expected to hold rates at 0.00% on Thursday, with only 1/24 surveyed economists expecting a cut. Continued positive inflation prints should skew near term policy expectations away from further policy easing. The policy statement is likely to re-iterate that the SNB "remains willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary."
• SNB Chair Schlegel announced that from the September meeting, the bank will start publishing meeting summaries four weeks after the decision.
• SNB officials have clearly indicated that there is a higher hurdle to reimpose negative rates given the undesirable side effects, according to MUFG. There is also optimism after recent trade talks with the US to secure a deal lowering the tariff rate. As a result, MUFG are not expecting this week’s SNB meeting to weaken the Swiss franc.