COPPER TECHS: (Z5) Bear Flag
- RES 4: $602.25 - High Jul 24 and a key resistance
- RES 3: $588.70 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $550.00 - Low Jul 9 & 28
- RES 1: $478.63 - 50-day EMA
- PRICE: $465.10 @ 14:20 BST Sep 12
- SUP 1: $440.55 - Low Jul 31
- SUP 2: $418.85 - Low Apr 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $400.00 - Round number support
- SUP 4: $392.10 - Low Aug 7 2024 (cont)
Copper futures remain in consolidation mode. The sharp reversal down from the Jul 30 high cancels a recent bullish theme and instead highlights a bear threat. A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support at $418.85, the Apr 7 low. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish threat. Note that the most recent sideways move appears to be a flag - a bearish continuation pattern. Initial resistance is $479.16, the 50-day EMA.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Holds Ground
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 112-04 @ 14:29 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures spiked sharply on the CPI print, hitting 112-06 before fading into the close. Despite the intraday reversal off highs, the bullish theme persists, supported by the clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high, on the NFP reaction. Prices remain toward the upper-end of the range, keeping the May 1 high at 112-23, the next upside level. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
EQUITIES: US Cash Opening calls - Set for a new Record high
US Cash Equities are set for a new record highs in the SPX, NDX and the Dow, a 25bps Fed cut in Sept fully priced.
Yesterday's high in SPX was at 6446.55, NDX at 23,849.50, and Dow 44,497.59.
- Calls: SPX: 6,469.3 (+0.4%); DJIA: 44,642 (+0.4%/+183pts); NDX: 23,951.5 (+0.5%).
EUROPEAN INFLATION: German Inflation Breadth Progress Continues To Stall [2/2]
MNI’s inflation breadth tracker shows disinflation overall continuing to stall in Germany in July:
- Looking at the low-inflation categories, the percentage of ECOICOP items printing at or below 1% Y/Y was unchanged at 40% while the percentage in high-inflation categories (above 5%) also declined marginally from 15% to 14%.
- The 1-3% range offset this, rising from 24% to 25% although there was still 21% in the 3-5% range, with the latter technically at its highest since February and slightly above the 19% averaged over the past year.
