EM LATAM CREDIT: YPF: Tap 8.75% 2031 - Launch

• -30,000 TYZ5 112-17.5, sell through 112-18.5 post time bid at 1344:24ET, DV01 $2.032M
• The 10Y contract has since bounced off 112-17 post cross low to 112-18.5 last (+2)

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8751 High Sep 25  
• PRICE: 0.8724 @ 16:33 BST Sep 30
• SUP 1: 0.8665/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

EURGBP is in consolidation mode but continues to trade closer to its recent highs, and a bullish theme remains intact. The latest recovery paves the way for an extension towards the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bull theme. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. A breach of this level would instead reinstate a recent bearish threat. First support is 0.8665, the 50-day EMA. 

Near-term inflation expectations dipped in September's Conference Board consumer survey, but remain slightly elevated.

• The 1Y ahead average fell to 5.8% from 6.1% prior, with the median down to 4.7% from 5.0%.
• That mirrors the sequential dip in the UMichigan survey 1Y reading (4.7% vs 4.8%) in September, though the Conference Board is much closer to its own historical norms than the unusually elevated UMichigan.
• For perspective, the Conf Board 1Y average ended 2024 at 5.10%, with the median at 4.00%; Michigan's was just 2.8%. The Conf Board avg peaked at 7.00% / median 5.9% in April.
• Per the Conference Board report, “Consumers’ write-in responses showed that references to prices and inflation rose in September, regaining its top position as the main topic influencing consumers’ views of the economy. References to tariffs declined this month, but remained elevated and continued to be associated with concerns about higher prices."