US TSYS: Yields Mixed as TYH6 Fails Key Resistance
US 10-Yr bond futures are down -02+ to 112-12 in Friday afternoon trade, having reached a high of 112-14+ earlier. In a light volume trading day the US 10-Yr attempted to break above the 100-day EMA of 112-14+ only to fail and fall back below. Downside resistance is at 111-30 being the 200-day EMA.
Cash markets were mixed Friday during the Asian trading day with the long end underperforming. There is no auctions tonight and bond markets may likely remain subdued as it looks ahead to next week's data releases.
- The 2-Yr is at 3.528% down -1.4bps today. Range for the week 3.52% - 3.61%
- The 5-Yr is at 3.724% down -1.2bps today. Range for the week 3.72% -3.75%
- The 10-Yr is at 4.158% unchanged today. Range for the week 4.15% - 4.19%
- The 30-Yr is at 4.808% up +0.6bps today. Range for the week 4.78% - 4.80%
There is no tier 1 economic data tonight with FED speak resuming next week.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BOJ: Rinban Purchase Offer
The BoJ offers to buy a total of Y720bn of JGBs from the market:
- Y300bn worth of JGBs with 1-3 Years until maturity
- Y305bn worth of JGBs with 5-10 Years until maturity
- Y115bn worth of JGBs with 10-25 Years until maturity
OIL: Crude Holds Most Of Tuesday’s Gains Ahead Of Key Reports
After rising around 1.5% on Tuesday, crude is slightly lower on Wednesday as the market waits for key information released later. WTI is down 0.3% to $60.84, holding above $60 through the session, while Brent is 0.3% lower at $64.99 after falling to $64.90. The USD index is up 0.1%.
- The excess oil supply driven by increased OPEC and non-OPEC output remains in focus with the spread between the WTI December-January contracts only 4c, suggesting an expected easier market. The EIA short-term outlook, IEA annual report and OPEC monthly report are published Wednesday. As well as US industry-reported inventory data.
- While expected excess supply has pressured oil prices, the market remains unsure over the impact of the latest sanctions on Russia. There has already been an increase in diesel prices and signs that India is looking for sources that are not Lukoil or Rosneft. Also, Russia’s Lukoil’s West Qurna 2 field in Iraq has been transferred to state firms to ensure production continues, according to Bloomberg.
- Our US analysts believe that the post-shutdown data schedule should be published next week with a risk that October CPI won’t be released. See their FAQ here.
- Later the Fed’s Barr, Williams, Paulson, Waller, Bostic, Miran and Collins speak as well as the ECB’s Schnabel and de Guindos. The Eurogroup meeting is taking place. There are no data of note.
JGBS: 5Y Richer Ahead Of Tomorrow's Supply, Long-End Cheaper
JGB futures are stronger and at session highs, +14 compared to settlement levels, on a data-light day.
- Cash US tsys are 2-4bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session after being closed yesterday for Veterans Day.
- Cash JGBs are 1.5bps richer (7-year) to 1.5bps cheaper (20- and 40-year) across benchmarks. The benchmark 5-year yield is 0.9bp at 1.243% versus the cycle high of 1.272% (see chart).
- Ahead of tomorrow's 5-year supply, the 2s/5s curve has steepened to near its cycle high of 32bps, last reached in late 2023.
- Regression analysis shows a strong pro-cyclical, but atypical, relationship between the 5-year yield and the 2s/5s curve over the past 12 months.
- This dynamic is supported by expectations that the 5-year sector will sit in the "sweet spot" for increased issuance, as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi looks to deploy her first stimulus package to jump-start the economy.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower to 1bp higher, with a steepening bias.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see PPI and International Investment Flow data alongside 5-year supply.
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP
