COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Trading Close to This Week's Highs

Stabilisation in wider risk sentiment (equity index futures and precious metals off lows) and the modest upward revision in the final UK manufacturing PMI have helped gilts away from session highs after risk-off Asia-Pac trade drove a rally at the open.

• Futures ultimately stick within the range established over the prior couple of sessions, last +23 at 91.08 after topping out at 91.21.
• Initial support and resistance located at the Jan 29 low (90.48) and 20-day EMA (91.43), respectively, bearish technical cycle intact.
• Yields little changed to 1-2bp lower, curve flatter. 10s still failing to move definitively away from 4.50%.
• GBP STIRs back from dovish session extremes, SONIA last flat to +2.5, BoE-dated OIS pricing ~38.5bp of cuts through November (~0.5bp more dovish on the day).
• Thursday’s BoE decision is set to headline this week.
• There will be focus on the vote (which from the early previews we have read is expected to be 7-2 with risks of 6-3) but the main focus is likely to be twofold: firstly on the Agents' Annual Pay Survey which will be announced alongside the decision and which the MPC have already been privy to and will be used as a guide for how sticky wage inflation is expected to be through 2026.
• Secondly, the individual member paragraphs will be watched - particularly Governor Bailey, Breeden and Ramsden (assuming neither of the latter two vote for a sequential cut). Any hints guiding towards a March cut will be key here.
• On the supply front, the DMO will come to market with GBP4.25bln of the 4.75% Oct-35 line tomorrow.

• The most recent action for G10 currencies has remained a sideshow to the aggressive moves seen in the precious metals space. Price action this morning saw spot silver extend its decline from last Thursday’s peak to as much as 41%, while gold followed suit in plummeting 20% at its worst point as positional dynamics have exacerbated sentiment.
• Key questions surrounding how Fed Chair appointee Warsh is planning to square a smaller balance sheet with lower rates, and expectations for the government shutdown to resolve this week, are helping the DXY consolidate around 1.7% off last week’s cycle lows.
• This is further dampening the recent enthusiasm for EURUSD, which after spiking to 1.2080 early last week, now finds itself trading in a more stable manner around 1.1850. The latest strengthening of the Euro (particularly against the dollar) has reignited downside inflation concerns amongst more dovish GC members, of interest ahead of this Thursday’s ECB.
• The weaker commodity complex, with oil also down 5%, did weigh on the likes of AUD and NZD to start the week, although both have stabilised across the European morning. Positioning dynamics will also be a consideration for AUD as we approach the RBA decision tomorrow, where surveyed analysts lean towards a 25bp hike.
• Elsewhere, markets pounced on latest remarks from PM Takaichi regarding the yen as we approach the Japanese election, where she stated a weak currency can be a major opportunity for export industries. USDJPY rose to 155.51 recovery highs before the weaker risk sentiment and a walking back of the rhetoric assisted a reversal back below 155.
• ISM Manufacturing will show if Friday's outperformance in the MNI Chicago PMI can be seen across the US. The February Refunding round starts today with the Treasury’s update on financing requirements; the full refunding will follow Wednesday.