COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Maintaining a Relatively Softer Tone

• Risk sentiment has been dented to start the week, as markets assess the latest geopolitical concerns regarding the Russia/Ukraine conflict and tariff related developments between the US and China.
• The prevailing trend of greenback weakness has resumed, prompting USDJPY to extend its pullback from last Thursday’s 146.28 high. This leaves spot trading below 143.00 once more and a continuation lower would expose 142.12, the May 27 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear leg and signal scope for a move towards a key medium-term pivot around the 140.00 mark.
• The Yen is notably outperforming the Swiss Franc, prompting a 0.35% move lower for CHFJPY. While this cross remains in the middle of the May range, spot continues to find good resistance around the 176.00 handle. Further weakness would raise attention on the key 50-day EMA support, intersecting at 173.35, an average we have not closed below since mid-March.
• Goldman Sachs say JPY is still one of their favourite medium-term dollar shorts, stating it continues to be an attractive hedge in a backdrop of elevated recession risk, despite odds of a downturn falling in recent weeks.
• GS believe the price action over recent weeks (and in prior periods of fiscal shocks) supports their view that safe haven demand should still dominate. Recently, GS also noted they prefer funding in CHF rather than JPY, believing that the Swiss Franc is not particularly misaligned in either direction from either a cyclical or structural standpoint.

WTI futures are in consolidation mode. The contract traded to a fresh short-term cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. A bear threat remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance is $62.47, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. A bullish theme in Gold remains intact and recent gains signal the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are bullish too - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger to watch, has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low.

• WTI Crude up $1.97 or +3.24% at $62.75
• Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.32% at $3.599
• Gold spot up $65.06 or +1.98% at $3354
• Copper up $22.8 or +4.87% at $490.65
• Silver up $0.46 or +1.38% at $33.439
• Platinum down $5.65 or -0.53% at $1052.32

The trend cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bull theme. Key support to watch lies at 5254.09, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal a possible reversal. The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish. Last Thursday’s initial gains delivered a print above 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger. The break highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. 6000.00 has been pierced, an extension would open 6057.00 next, the Mar 3 high. Key support lies at 5742.22, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to highlight a reversal.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 494.43 pts or -1.3% at 37470.67 and the TOPIX ended 24.28 pts lower or -0.87% at 2777.29.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 82.19 pts or -0.34% at 23915.2, FTSE 100 higher by 12.5 pts or +0.14% at 8784.85, CAC 40 down 30.87 pts or -0.4% at 7721.02 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 21.26 pts or -0.4% at 5345.33.
• Dow Jones mini down 178 pts or -0.42% at 42115, S&P 500 mini down 28.25 pts or -0.48% at 5887.75, NASDAQ mini down 139.25 pts or -0.65% at 21238.