COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Bull Cycle Intact, Remains Above 20-, 50-Day EMAs

Feb-10 10:30

A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact. However, the reversal from the Jan 29 high continues to highlight a corrective cycle. Attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.16. The 50-day EMA lies at $60.50. A clear breach of the 50-day average would highlight a stronger reversal and open $58.53, the Jan 20 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. The latest bounce in Gold highlights a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off. The next two resistance points to monitor are $5139.9 and $5314.0, Fibonacci retracement levels. Note that the sharp sell-off from the Jan 29 high highlights a potential top in the L/T trend and from a S/T perspective, an unwinding of the recent extreme overbought condition. A resumption of bearish activity would refocus attention on $4403.0, the Feb 2 low.

  • WTI Crude down $0.12 or -0.19% at $64.25
  • Natural Gas down $0.04 or -1.27% at $3.098
  • Gold spot down $10.5 or -0.21% at $5047.96
  • Copper down $6.05 or -1.01% at $590.2
  • Silver down $1.14 or -1.37% at $82.1695
  • Platinum down $21.59 or -1.02% at $2102.21

Historical bullets

AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode

Jan-10 22:45
  • RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
  • RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
  • RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12  
  • PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
  • SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
  • SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
  • SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support. 

MNI: MNI TEST 02, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:36

Test Test TEST

MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore

Jan-09 23:30

Test, ignore