AMERICAS OIL: WTI Crude Oil is up today
February 18 - Americas End-of-Day Oil Summary: WTI Crude Oil is up today on reports of reduced CPC pipeline flows, offsetting bearish pressure from US-Russia talks today, which could pave the way to a Ukraine peace agreement.
- An attack by Ukrainian drones on the Kropotkinskaya pumping station in Russia resulted in a reduction in CPC oil transportation. Transneft says the damaged CPC station will take 1.5-2 months to repair.
- US-Russia talks in Riyadh took place today. Increased talk of negotiations for a truce to bring peace to Ukraine are weighing on oil prices with the potential for an easing of sanctions on Russia enabling more exports. However, a deal is a long way off, with concerns that Ukraine is being excluded from talks between the US and Russia.
- Oil demand in JODI-reporting countries fell 706 kb/d m/m in December and down 258 kb/d y/y. Crude oil production increased by 351 kb/d m/m and up 267 kb/d vs Dec. 2023.
- G7 nations are looking at tightening or adapting the price cap on Russian oil to try and restrict revenues according to a draft statement seen by Bloomberg on Tuesday.
- OIES has left the Brent forecast unchanged at $77/bbl for 2025 but down slightly to $74/bbl in 2026, according to the latest monthly report.
- Brazil announced it is joining OPEC+ after being invited in 2023.
- North Dakota oil production was cut by 120k b/d to 150k b/d due to a cold snap with temperatures about -17F (-27C) on Tuesday.
- Oil loadings from the Russian Blas Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended due to a storm.
- Exxon curtailed production at the Hibernia and Hebron fields off Eastern Canada due to a shortfall of shuttle tankers and bad weather, the CBC reported.
- The NOAA 6–14-day outlook is less supportive for heating demand with below-normal conditions forecast in part of the Southeast with milder conditions across the western two-thirds. Elevated heating demand is thus likely in the southern part of PADD 1 with below normal demand in most of PADDs 2-5.
- US cracks were lower, reversing some of the firm gains seen across late-Jan and early-Feb as the market assesses expectations of rising trade friction amidst reciprocal tariff threats.
- WTI Mar futures were up 1.5% at $71.80
- WTI Apr futures were up 1.5% at $71.79
- RBOB Mar futures were down 0.9% at $2.44
- ULSD Mar futures were up 0.3% at $2.46
- US gasoline crack down 1.2$/bbl at 15.80$/bbl
- US ULSD crack down 0.8$/bbl at 30.63$/bbl
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EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8463 High Jan 15
- PRICE: 0.8443 @ 19:24 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 0.8385 Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 0.8332/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 3: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 4: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
EURGBP maintains a firmer tone and the cross continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The latest recovery undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for stronger short-term gains. 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has been cleared. Note too that 0.8448, the Oct 31 high, has been pierced, a clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8332.
EURUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Still Bearish
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0345/54 20-day EMA / High Jan 15
- PRICE: 1.0282 @ 19:12 GMT Jan 17
- SUP 1: 1.0178 Low Jan 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.0122 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0031 2.000 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bearish and last week’s recovery appears corrective. Recent weakness resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0138 next, a Fibonacci projection. Resistance to watch is 1.0437, the Jan 6 high. Initial resistance is at 1.0345, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
- MNI: US TSY TICS NET FLOWS IN NOV +$159.9B
- US TSY TICS NET L-T FLOWS IN NOV +$79.0B
