ENERGY SECURITY: WHITE HOUSE: PENTAGON AND ENERGY DEPARTMENT WORKING ON PLAN

RRP usage inches up to $10.415B with 8 counterparties this afternoon vs. $9.629B Friday. Compares to December 12 low of $0.838B (lowest level since mid-March 2021); this years highest excess liquidity measure: $460.731B on June 30.

• RES 4: 0.8813 76.4% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 2: 0.8781 61.8% retracement of the Nov 14 - Jan 6 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8708/46 50-day EMA / High Dec 31 & Jan 21
• PRICE: 0.8650 @ 16:11 GMT Feb 2
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

EURGBP is trading closer to its recent lows. A bear threat remains intact and recent weakness signals the end of a corrective phase between Jan 6 - 21. MA studies are in a bear-mode set-up and this highlights a dominant bear cycle. Key support and the bear trigger lies at 0.8644, the Jan 6 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the trend and open 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 0.8746, the Jan 21 high.    

Prime Minister Lecornu's government concluded the passage of the 2026 budget late Monday - as anticipated - after support for censure motions from opposition lawmakers fell short. 

• As we've been noting since last week, this should put political uncertainty on the backburner at least for a few months.
• This appeared well anticipated by EGB markets which saw 10Y OAT/Bund earlier concluding the cash session 0.1bp wider at 58.6bp, a few bp wider than seen at the beginning of last week but but well below the ~65-85bp range seen through the last 18 months of political/fiscal uncertainty.